1/ There are a lot of investment sayings that get repeated by individual & professional investors alike.
One I hear parroted over and over again is a variation of “high stock valuations are fine since interest rates are low”.
But did you ever stop and ask, “Is that true”?
2/ This thread was inspired by a tweet poll I did a few years ago, in which I asked, would you still own stocks if they reached 10-year price to earnings (CAPE) ratio valuation multiples of 50-, or 100-times earnings.
3/ And I was shocked, but most said they would still own stocks at 50, and many (a third!) said they would own them at essentially any price (100).
Fun 2012 blog post on bonds...will update to 2020 tomorrow...
"I spend a lot of time chatting with institutions, and universally everyone hates bonds. HATES them. Everyone KNOWS bonds are in a bubble....
... You can see in the below chart from Barron’s and Bespoke that there is not more consensus anywhere than being bearish on bonds.
Can you fathom US 10-Year Bonds yielding .5%?
No? Well take a look at this old chart we updated from The Japan Playbook :
Now many people are thinking about what to do with their bond holdings after this rally…it is instructive to take a look a Japan and how their bonds have performed as we think that is one of the best comparisons.
That said, I think the news flow will get a lot more scary the next two weeks as the virus gets more real and personal for Americans (as we soon know someone who has it or famous people pass away).
Even more important to have a plan...
I/my company plan on scaling out of our tail risk positions every 5% down.