Summary for what’s coming:
“Buckle up” - we are in uncharted territory.
Quick Notes:
Hard to predict future when the background is so unusual. Very dif than c2000. SDtTouches on positioning, including $BTC
1/4
Druck is:
Short long-dated USTs
Long commodities
“Very very short dollar”
Asia is the “big big winner” - $SEA
Next 5 years, Asia better than US (due to fiscal/debt, current account surplus, etc.)
2/4
$BTC - could be both a mega-bubble & a store of value. I don’t believe or not believe. I own some, and have for a while. I’m also long commodities.
“Possible, perhaps even probable” that the extreme stimmy will be here as vaxes complete. Massive pent up demand will unlock.
3/4
Social challenges around de facto caste system in US are important to address and continue to broadly unlock the American Dream.
[End]
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Those emergency investors will get a quick win, as RH likely IPOs later this year.
“[RH] told investors they still plan to take the company public sometime in the first half of the year...To do so, he will have to clear the high growth bar set by Wall St. investors.”
“Many customers aren’t aware of the complicated machinery behind each trade... And regulators and industry watchdogs decide things like how much capital and collateral brokerages have to post.”
“Behind the scenes, Robinhood and other brokers were dealing with a jam in the machine that moves shares from sellers to buyers.”
“Because of a lag between when investors book new positions in a stock and when their cash is actually exchanged for securities, brokerages ...have to maintain deposit accounts at the clearing firms that help finalize trades.”
This is a “plumbing” issue. It is esoteric, even for those on Wall Street.
A very long thread on how the toilet is clogged.🚽🧻🪠
Read on
👇👇👇💎💎💎🚀🚀🚀👇👇👇
First: RH was not the only brokerage to restrict buying in $GME et al. Much of the below applies to many brokerages. I'm going to use "RH" in my writing for simplicity and because it's the most prominent, but it's not fair to call this a RobinHood issue, per se.
The restrictions impacted retail AND institutional players – many institutional prime brokers ("PBs") did the same thing to their hedge fund clients.
Why?
Surely PBs can't be trying to punish their own clients just to benefit Citadel. There must be something else happening...
$TWTR's business can be framed somewhere at the intersection of a truly neutral party and an organized cable bundle, but with more of a entropic nature.
As the cable cos (especially Malone) showed us during the 80s and 90s, getting a slot in the cable bundle can make or break a new content company.
Malone, seeing this, took stakes in BET, Discovery, Fox News, QVC, the Family Channel, the Travel Channel, etc. in exchange for...