Thread by @telebusiness

~ a #thread 👇

A startling estimate has caught the eye of economists: that London's population may have plunged by 700,000 during the pandemic.

What do we know and will it spell trouble for the city's economy?

@tomelleryrees takes a closer look telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…

London's population has been hit by a double whammy: office work shifting online, and native and foreign-born workers moving out 👇

The WFH revolution has tempted employees out of the capital, with many seeking cheaper rents…

How damaging these shifts are for London's economy hinges on whether workers return or have left for good.

@BankofAmerica believes potential GDP growth would be cut to a meagre 0.2% – down from 0.5% in its base case scenario 👇

There are also signs of trouble brewing in the property market.

Average house prices in London rose above £500,000 for the first time in Nov, but the struggling rental market may be a better gauge of problems.

Rental costs tumbled 5% year-on-year across the capital in Nov 👇

A prolonged decline wouldn't be unprecedented for the city.

The last major population drop suffered by London was in the decades after the Second World War, driven by old industries falling away and government policy…

The difference this time, however, is the immediacy of the population shock.

Economists are still unsure how many workers will flood back to London once the pandemic has been brought under control…

A sustained decline would dent demand for services in the city and hit retail, restaurants, bars and clubs 👇

But it could also ease pressure on transport and housing…

Even once the pandemic has ended for the capital, London's population bust may be one of the longest lasting legacies from the crisis.

Read more in @tomelleryrees' feature telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…