Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 22 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where me and @urboihamza look ahead to the doubles and the fixture rescheduling in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, I'd like to announce that the new round of the Fantasy5 is now live! There was no winner last week so I notice they have been lenient in their predicted scores this week. This might be your best chance to win £10k! Link below:

fantasy5.com/f5

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At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, do follow up here!

instagram.com/bigmanbakar

Q: In my first section, I’d like to address the huge outcry over benched points in recent weeks. I quote my friend @zophar666 here.

I think we need some perspective here. We are still very much in the middle of a pandemic, so postponements and cancellations are very much...

... still a possibility. Very recently we had Stones, Cancelo and Sterling benched, and most FPL managers had a significant majority of their auto-substitutes used. The schedule is like no other season, a bench is needed and we are fortunate we have players like...

... Souček, Justin, Coufal, Raphinha and the likes who offer high potential at an affordable price. Benching Souček away to Aston Villa/Bamford away to Leicester was a reasonable call, given Villa’s/Leicester’s defensive record. Similarly, benching Calvert Lewin away...

... to Man United is a reasonable call – if he hauls so be it, we need to embrace process-oriented thinking, not result-oriented thinking. We need to stop thinking what-might-have-been. Nobody can see the future and these are 50-50 calls you can fall on the wrong side of...

...The lack of premium options like Kane, Vardy, Mané and De Bruyne plays a part too, as we won’t normally have this much money to invest. When they are back it is perfectly fine to convert Souček to say a 7th attacker. Even this week I have received a countless number...

... of questions asking who to bench. Honestly, when you ask me whether to bench the likes of Grealish, Watkins, Calvert Lewin, Raphinha, Soucek, Barnes and Gündoğan there is no right answer as all have the pedigree to do well. Just back your gut...

...and play whoever you think is getting the most points and if you get it wrong, don’t beat yourself about it.

Q: How to cope with the upcoming double GW 24? Who are the must-have assets to own?

Man City: I believe most of us have triple City already. The optimum combination I’d pick would be Cancelo, one of Stones or Dias, and one of Gündoğan or Sterling.

Everton: I think Calvert Lewin is more than enough given that two of the next three fixtures are against Man United and Man City away. Digne I’d hold if you have him, but I would be in no rush to buy.

Fulham: Their defensive stats in recent times have been abysmal while the distribution of points in their midfield and attack is extremely random. I’d avoid.

Burnley: Now Burnley are the team which interest me the most, given their fixtures not only in the double but also either side of it (BHA cry,FUL WBA). Nick Pope is the man to buy in my opinion – he is second for FPL points and saves among keepers this season...

...He also has the best mins per baseline BPS ratio of all Burnley defenders, so with the accumulation of bonus he will haul big whenever Burnley are to keep a clean sheet. It’s also worth noting that in the reverse fixtures, he accumulated 9 points v Brighton, 11 points...

... v West Brom and 10 points against Palace (yet to play Fulham). I now run a comparison between their defenders:

(below)

Lowton v Mee v Tarkowski

Mins per chance created: 255 v 342 v 675
Mins per shot in the box: 1530 v 168.75 v 172
Mins per big chance: 1530 v 1350 v 570
Mins per penalty area touch: 306 v 58.69 v 45
Mins per baseline BPS: 8.4 v 7.4 v 9

There is no standout in terms of those numbers – they make for dire reading. Honestly, you’d have to be lucky to pick the right defender here. I’d probably go with Mee, given that he has almost the same chance of getting an attacking return as anyone else but seems to do best...

... with bonus accumulation. As far as the Burnley attack is concerned, they are 2nd worst for big chances and xG over the season so there’s not much to say. Wood is the only one who would slightly appeal – and that too for FPL managers wildcarding immediately after the double.

Q: In this section, I analyze the dip in Aston Villa’s defensive numbers in recent weeks.

(below)

Aston Villa GW 1-16 v GW 17-22: (league position in brackets)

Shots conceded in the box per game: 6.7 (5th) v 10.8 (18th)
Big chances conceded per game: 1.2 (4th) v 2.2 (17th)
Average xG conceded per game: 1 (3rd) v 1.7 (18th)

As shown, Villa’s defensive stats from GW 1 to 16 were exemplary where they were on the right side of the spectrum as far as league rankings for defensive numbers were concerned. However, over the previous six matches, these numbers have witnessed an alarming decline which...

... should be a cause of concern for FPL managers who own their defensive assets and Emi Martínez.

(below)

Arsenal’s GW 1-16 v GW 17-22 (league position in brackets)

Shots inside the box per game: 7.3 (10th) v 9.5 (5th)
Big chances per game: 1.5 (13th) v 2.1 (7th)
Average xG per game: 1.1 (12th) v 1.7 (4th)

As shown, Arsenal’s attacking stats from GW 1 to GW 16 were mediocre at best. However, over the previous six matches, Arsenal’s attacking stats have shown a visible improvement which when put together with Villa’s defensive decline are pointing to Arsenal scoring again at the...

... weekend. I’m aware that Martínez makes tons of saves, but FPL managers who can afford to bench him might be better served doing so according to the data available. Same applies to the Villa defensive assets as well.

Q: How to cope with the upcoming double GW 25? Who are the must-have assets to own?

In this section, I’ll talk about Leeds first who have a double GW (wol SOT) coming up in GW 25. The Raph and Bam duo is one to keep an eye on and of late their goal involvements are...

... increasingly akin to those of Kane and Son. I say that because in the past five matches, Raphinha and Bamford have been involved in approximately 71% of Leeds’ big chances, telling me that almost every attack goes through them...

... Their numbers as of late have been great, with both of them averaging at least one big chance involvement in the past three matches. They have a decent price tag and they are a great, explosive duo going into the double...

...Leeds are among the top four teams this season for xG non-penalty away from home, so I would be confident going into the Wolves fixture. Then they face Southampton who have also been really struggling and going through a poor run of form. Then they have Villa in GW 26...

... and I have already spoken about their defensive regression in recent times. This tells me that they not only are a good option going into double GW 25, but also offer potential for points in GW 26. However, I would not advise investing in Leeds defenders...

...The defensive numbers of Leeds are very poor. Anyone who owns Dallas can go into the Leeds double with him, but I would not suggest buying him or any other Leeds defensive asset based on attacking threat alone. I would be really surprised if Leeds...

... kept a clean sheet in any of the fixtures in GW 25 and 26. It’s hard to write about Southampton after the 9-0 drubbing. I expect a reaction, and perhaps I think there’s a chance that McCarthy might even be dropped...

... for Forster (Hasenhüttl did similar with Gunn after the 9-0 loss). There is a chance that Southampton have three doubles back-to-back in DGW 25,26 and 27. I think the play is to wait and watch their assets this GW, before deciding who to invest in for the fixtures coming up.

Q: Is it better to wildcard in the coming weeks or holding it post GW 29?

At the cost of repeating myself, chip strategies should be team specific and dependent on the assets you own. Assuming that someone has the wildcard and bench boost intact, I would try to make the...

...most out of the bench boost by wildcarding in one of the prior weeks – either in GW 24 or 25. I believe there are big swings to take advantage of by wildcarding earlier given the way the doubles are likely to be structured. I would think short-term till GW24, maximize my...

... score there before wildcarding to set myself for a bench boost. It seems as if GW 29 will feature around 4-5 fixtures of the lesser teams so for those with Free Hit, that seems the optimal time to use it rather than in one of the doubles – as we are likely to own most...

... of the double GW 26 assets (Spurs, Man City etc) beforehand anyway.

Q: In this section, I address the captaincy debate this GW.

Firstly I assess the impact of Pogba on Bruno’s returns:

(below)

Bruno without Pogba 20/21 (15 matches) v Bruno with Pogba 20/21 (7 matches)

Mins per chance created: 25 v 39
Mins per big chance created: 101 v 208
Mins per shot in the box: 58 v 78
Mins per big chance: 111 v 208
FPL points per game: 8.7 v 4.4

I personally think the sample size is reasonable enough to suggest that even though Bruno remains a good asset to own regardless of Pogba's presence, his ceiling definitely reduces when Pogba plays. This could be due to the fact that Pogba likes carrying the ball...

... a lot which limits Bruno's movement. I think for Bruno to be at his best, he needs players around him who make good runs which is not always the case for Pogba who wants often the ball to himself. This is just something worth keeping in mind whenever...

... you are likely to captain Bruno. Having said that, this trend has only been noticed this season - in Project Restart, Bruno had five goals and four assists with Pogba on the field so the jury's still out. Everton are unbeaten in their past six away games, having...

... conceded just five times over those games so this may not be as easy as may sound on paper. United are in form though, having accumulated the highest number of big chances in the past six GWs. I now look at Heung Min Son as an option. Worryingly, Spurs have...

... accumulated an xG of barely one in the 190 minutes of football played after Harry Kane’s injury. During this spell, they are bottom in the league for big chances created. Regardless of that, Spurs are still the most likely team tipped to score 2.5+ goals...

... this week – which in all probability is because of the fixture alone. West Brom’s defensive numbers have been the worst this season and unfortunately for them, the trend has continued with alarming consistency despite Big Sam’s introduction.

Q: In this section, I assess the impact of Antonio on West Ham since his return.

I now run a comparison to assess the massive impact that Antonio has had on West Ham's attack this season:

(below)

West Ham without Antonio v West Ham with Antonio

Shots in the box per game: 8.1 v 9.1
Big chances per game: 1.8 v 2
Average xG per game: 1.1 v 1.7

I think it's fair to say that the impact on a player on his team is immense given that the average xG per game increases by almost 55% on his introduction. Not only that, no player in the league has recorded more big chances or has a better expected minutes...

... per goal involvement than Antonio since his return. He's the number one forward to own in my opinion right now. Fulham are bottom for big chances conceded in the last six games and they are third worst for xG conceded non-penalty, in the same spell. Numbers...

... tell me that Antonio and company are likely to score a few past a defensively struggling Fulham side. This is why I believe Antonio might be an outside shout for captaincy this week as well for those looking at a differential. West Ham are in really good form and...

... come up against Fulham, whose attacking improvements seem to have masked their defensive frailties at the back.

Q: In this section, I discuss Liverpool’s lack of form and Salah in particular.

Liverpool GW 10-22 Home v Liverpool GW 10-22 Away

Shots in the box per game: 10 v 8.57
Big chances per game: 1.3 v 2.9
Average xG per game: 1.4 v 1.8

What I read from this is that of late, Liverpool are more suited to playing on the counter away from home rather than against deep blocks at home where they still tend to create a decent amount of chances but are struggling for form due to lack of quality chance creation...

... Even despite their recent struggles, Liverpool are ranked in the top three for big chances and xG per game in away matches from GW 10-22 so their underlying numbers away from home are perfectly fine. A similar trend is followed by Salah, who is averaging 90 mins per big...

... chance away from home during this period compared to 161 mins per big chance at home. One can argue that the City game might suit the Liverpool attack though, as they may have to play a counter attacking style rather than in the usual possession-based manner at home...

...As far as their defenders are concerned, I’d be looking to sell. Imagine me telling you at the start of the season that we’d be sitting on the 5th of Feb 2021 and Liverpool would have conceded more big chances than Burnley and Newcastle over the season – incredible.

Q: In this section, I analyze Man City and whether or not it makes sense to play their assets against Liverpool.

Man City continued on their merry ways against Burnley. A ridiculous stat I noted from the game was that they recorded approximately 27 times the xG...

... of Burnley in that game. Gündoğan created the most chances, including two big chances and was unlucky not to have recorded another assist. This could easily have been one of them games where Sterling hauled big but he was denied by Nick Pope time and again...

... His numbers are improving and a haul is around the corner. If I owned double City defence and one of Gündoğan/Sterling, I wouldn’t be selling one for the other. Man City have conceded just once in the league in almost 1400 minutes that Stones has played in this season, so...

... it feels bizarre leaving the likes of Dias/Stones on the bench even though on paper Liverpool appears to be a tough fixture. I don’t think it’s mad playing two Man City defenders in this fixture, because I expect it to be low scoring. I think Liverpool will score...

... though because as quoted above this game may suit their counter attacking style. Cancelo I would 100% play regardless, such is the attacking threat he possesses.

Q: In this section, I discuss Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan Bissaka and Marcos Alonso.

Shaw has the best minutes per chance created ratio of all defenders this season. He is second only to Robertson for chances created (just 3 chances behind!) having played almost 600 minutes...

... fewer than him. What’s also interesting is that he has created more chances than even Bruno Fernandes in the past six matches. This tells us about the form and pedigree of Shaw. Another defender being brought up is Wan Bissaka and how he might be a better option to own...

... Now I am going to run a comparison of both the United defenders to dig deeper into this analysis:

(below)

Shaw v Wan Bissaka (20/21 season averages)

Mins per chance created: 39.85 v 128.57
Mins per big chance created: 199.29 v 900
Mins per touch in final third: 3.01 v 4.51
Mins per penalty area touch: 45 v 81.81
Mins per baseline BPS: 5.5 v 6.3

As seen in the analysis I ran, Shaw seems to be by far and away the better option. Wan Bissaka did stack up a haul last GW but given Shaw’s consistency, I expect him to outscore Wan Bissaka. I don’t see Ole dropping him anytime soon due to his form either and thus, he would be...

... my pick out of the two United defenders. Now I talk about another defender who might be worth owning over the next few GWs, Marcos Alonso. For those who are wildcarding soon, Alonso looks the ideal short-term punt. Chelsea have been solid defensively since...

... Tuchel’s arrival – and are yet to concede a goal under him. Tuchel has been playing with five at the back and has been preferring Alonso over Chilwell for the left wing back position. Alonso does play the role really well, as he provides both defensive and an...

... attacking threat with the additional attribute of him being able to take decent freekicks too. Chelsea are second best for shots inside the box and xG conceded, only behind Man City since Tuchel has taken over – which is partly due to the fact that Chelsea...

... have been keeping an obscene amount of possession which restricts the opposition from getting too many chances. Chelsea have a good run of fixtures coming up (shu, NEW and sou), and for those who are looking to wildcard sometime soon, Alonso might be a good differential.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the week! De Gea with a predicted score of 6.5 is a huge surprise as I expected him to be at 7.5 like most keepers are every week. Neves and Pereira being on penalties I feel have a reasonable chance of beating their predicted score of 5.5 each.

This brings me to the end of the article. I would like to thank @urboihamza whose contribution has been immense helping me to release this on time. It would be great if you could offer him some encouragement too (follows/feedback appreciated!).

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Thank you for reading!