Thread by @Tmegrisi

Today #Libya's UN process careened over the line producing a new authority which frankly nobody would have expected when the #LPDF first met last November.

Abdul-Hamid Dbeiba will be the PM & Mohammed al-Mnefi the new President

A short thread on the new lay of the land

Firstly this vote can be read as a vote against the favourites: Fathi Bashagha and Aguileh Salah

Their union was always politically foolish given their bases are diametrically opposed. The addition of a military officer to their ticket simply made them too abrasive to too many

It takes a lot to fail at a process that was engineered for you. But it's the result of a focus on appeasing politicians rather than constituencies

The resistance to their ticket could be seen across social media and from armed groups preparing to violently reject them.

Dbeiba's ticket, contrarily, seems increasingly politically astute. It has an eastern President with no ties to Aguileh or Haftar, who in-turn has a western deputy that was part of the breakaway Tripoli HoR who tried to reconstitute the parliament in Ghadames (remember that?)

Dbeiba enters into this with *a lot* of baggage, it's a family name synonymous with the corruption of Qaddafi's era, but it's also one without ideological baggage which is perhaps more important in this day & age.

The closed ranks in support of the #LPDF from the international community as an extension of the #BerlinProcess means no one wants to be frozen out and because Dbeiba is *not* ideological it means that pragmatic options for a deal remain alive

So, an immediate war is less likely

This extends internationally too, following Haftar's failure, a new war against a UN birthed government is suicidal and less tolerated under President Biden, so the instinct is to look for a deal.

Here, #Egypt's response to deal or not to deal will be key

And that's because #Ankara will be feeling comfortable right now.

The new Prime Minister is from Misrata a city fully opposed to Haftar and in roaring trade with Turkey

The new President was the ambassador Greece unceremoniously expelled after Turkey's MoU with the GNA in 2019

Quick and strong statements of support for the process and the new government from Bashagha, and the Minister of Defence suggests they expect their work alongisde Turkey to continue.

Meanwhile Dbeiba's reputation & lack of partisanship means Tripoli's cartel is not as worried.

The rejection to this new order will take familiar forms and come from familiar sources.

Already claims of an Islamist takeover are emerging as both the federalist and the Haftar camps come to terms with their loss. Aguileh is certain to do all he can to spoil

This is why Egypt's position is key. If they go against this government & process they'll find ideological allies in the UAE and opportunistic allies in Russia to deepen existing divides

Here, the security and economic tracks take on new importance as additional carrots & sticks

The rejection by Aguileh and others will probably come through attacks on the integrity of the process, and accusations of vote buying which emerged during the LPDF's initial convening in November.

Dbeiba was heavily implicated and the UN promised an investigation.

Regardless Libya has a new President, a new PM & a new goal - elections in December

Those who prioritise that goal should now try to include as many as practical in the new order, protect it & pressure it to honour its commitment - as per my recent brief ecfr.eu/publication/sp…