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David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
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7 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Here is how the SPY-SP500 ETF has done with simple OHLC based strategies since its inception
Same strats since the GFC bottom
Here is the history of holding intraday.
Here is holding overnight vs holding intraday since the March 2020 bottom.

Rona life likes overnight action a lot
part of the explanation for this is that markets are a risk transfer mechanism and we get paid to take risk, and holding O/N is riskier than intraday. But that only explains part of it. If you have any other reasons why this stuff is how it is I am all ears.

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More from @DavidTaggart

David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
2 Oct 20
I have only done #FF a few times in my decade plus on this site. Today I will highlight some sub-5k accts that should be way over 5k.

@jaykaeppel

Comes up with more system ideas per day than maybe anyone alive, and many you would never think of. Blogs for free.
@jaykaeppel @jpicerno

I read his great book "Nowcastng the Business Cycle" years ago. Blogs for free. Has a service.

@MagnusMacro

Smart dude. Good discussion. Good pics of food.

@macrotool

Smart dude. When he posts about markets and what he is testing you want to pay attention.
@jaykaeppel @jpicerno @MagnusMacro @macrotool @SamuelRines

Does a great daily letter. Smart dude.

@jam_croissant

Options person. Smarter than most of us. Had an interview with Meb the other day. Go listen and then follow.
Read 8 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
21 Sep 20
1/one thing the fundamental people can learn from the technical people is the art of trend following and mean reversion as it pertains to having a rules based way to try and get better entries and stick with the position as long as you can.
2/if you want to be WarrenB 2.0 with lower drawdowns then you might want to read a bunch about the CTA/managed futures/LTTF crowd and how they run their systems. A LOT of value there imo. If you have the tendency to want to close out profits this can help you ride that trend
3/st mean reversion is not a bad way to get better entries or even better add on buys/shorts. You know the momentum lit that looks at 12m momo and then buys a month later? That is because there is a reversion factor in there.
Read 9 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
19 Sep 20
Politics
1-Those guys over there are doing a power move and they are corrupt and the sky is falling in. Theyre Hitler
2-Those guys over there did a power move last time and they are corrupt and we are saving the sky. Theyre Hitler

Repeat these convos everytime they switch power
1-no no no this time we are serious they really are Hitler.

2-yeah yeah yeah they are Hitler

Any genuinely neutral outside observer "damn is everyone named Hitler around here?"
idk there are legit issues in our politics and policies but damn everyone is blind to what their own parties do when they are in power.

Speaking of both parties. Cocaine Mitch is not a great person. Harry Reid was not a great person.
Read 9 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
16 Sep 20
Pretty sure Bill Gurley is in the other room throwing up right now

you dont get moves like this with a boring direct listing
SPACs have nothing on this. About as fun as handing the promoter all your money and never seeing it again.
Read 6 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
15 Sep 20
If you have a podcast PLEASE listen to it on headphones before sending it out. If your sound sucks then youre wasting your time cause no one will listen to it.

Good mic-$100ish
Pop Filter $10-30

That will get you to 95%+ quality. A sound editor can do more but that is the min
Here is my setup. A mic and the pop filter. I also have my mic on an arm so that i can touch my desk without extra noise. But you don't need that and its only like $15-30 Image
And no, I dont have my own podcast out yet but I listen to more podcasts than almost anyone else alive and know the difference between great, good, OK, bad, and trash...and too many are in the OK to bad spectrum. Get a decent mic and a pop filter and you move into good to great
Read 5 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
14 Sep 20
1/ After accelerating a bit around Labor Day, our US Mobility Composite has been declining again. The trend is still up but we are still down over -45% from "normal" levels. So not exactly awesome Image
2/ TSA throughput has been flat for a while. We get spikes around holidays (4th of July and Labor Day) as the people who I guess just dgaf go on flights, but no one else does.

TSA is still -67% YoY with the best day so far being down "only -55.95%. Image
3/make of that what you will. We expect higher case counts in the coming wks but are less sure about higher death counts to follow. School and the sports that come with that are back in to some degree so counts will go up. But the young are resistant to death so we'll see
Read 4 tweets

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