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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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7 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Bhutan reports 4 days of zero cases, successfully crushing their recent outbreak. Their Zero Covid strategy has proven to be successful.

According to the Prime Minister, they plan to vaccinate their population all in one week, starting mid-March.
Good News! Belize now averages 19 new cases per day with test positivity rate of ~3%.

They join our Winner’s Circle at EndCoronavirus.org/countries!

Congratulations!
Iceland reduced cases further in January, now averaging 3 new cases per day. Yesterday, only one domestic case was reported, which was already in quarantine. They have now delivered 5 doses of vaccine per 100 people.

Well done, Iceland!
US reports improvement in both cases and hospitalizations, but there are also 611 reported cases of the more transmissible, more deadly UK B117 variant (nearly 200 cases in FL alone).

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
8 Feb
Cases in South Africa have decreased significantly since mid-January. They are now reporting less than ⅕ of their peak! Enough for them to transition from our “Needs Action” category to “Nearly There”. Congrats!

See more: EndCoronavirus.org/countries Image
Canada reports some progress, primarily in Ontario and Quebec. Yesterday Canada reported 3,264 cases.

Deaths remain high, but are decreasing. Their second ‘wave’ has now caused more deaths than the first wave in spring. ImageImageImage
Atlantic Canada is also reporting progress.

Case in the last two weeks:

New Brunswick 233
Prince Edward Island 3
Nova Scotia 13
Newfoundland and Labrador 17 Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
7 Feb
How Complexity Science can help us understand pandemics and other wicked policy problems

"..let's say you go out to your car and somehow you have amnesia. And your brain is fine, but you don't remember what driving is about..

1/
staatslabor.ch/en/transcript-…
"The question is: what would you do in order to figure out what to do?..Maybe you would..try to pull on the hood or pull on the doors. Maybe you'd get a door open. But you probably might end up in the backseat just like you might end up in the front seat.

2/
"The purpose of complexity science, as I understand it, is to figure out what are the control variables in a problem. So if you knew that the steering wheel and the brakes and gas and the gearshift were the things that you need to control..you would know how to drive a car.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
7 Feb
The US can do better

Three thousand people are dying every day. We can do better.

1/
Hospitals are overflowing and many go untreated. We can do better,

Our doctors and nurses see the worst suffering they have seen, and we aren’t holding our loved ones. We can do better.

2/
The vaccine rollout keeps hitting snags. We can do better.

Schools are not working, we are not protecting our children or our teachers, and We can do better.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Feb
Two Radical Proposals for ‘Getting to Zero’

"Health experts around the world are now re-evaluating their nations’ responses..as “mitigation policies” have failed to contain two waves of the pandemic — with a..wave of highly infectious variants on the way.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"By now every[one] knows what COVID mitigation looks like: imprecise lockdowns with no real targets followed by ill-timed openings that result in more exponential grief.

2/
"And then politicians, who look as dazed as Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, call for another round of lockdowns with no strategy and no goals.

"It’s a policy of constant déjà vu — all pain, no gain and more COVID-19.

3/
Read 28 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Feb
Brunei, with a population of 430,000, continues success with their Zero Covid strategy.

Their last local case was on 6 May 2020, 275 days ago! Well done, Brunei!
Thailand continues to battle a local outbreak which spread in a seafood market near Bangkok. Yesterday they reported 586 new cases, with many cases occurring in their migrant worker population.
Similar to Thailand, Vietnam is also battling a local outbreak, and appears to be winning.

After a spike to 110, yesterday they reported only 9 local cases, 19 today.

Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Feb
Isle of Man gets to zero and returns to normalcy. Congratulations!

The government reacted quickly to stop their recent outbreak with a 25-day lockdown.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Hawaii reports progress! Honolulu, Maui, Hawaii all decreasing. Kauai and Kalawao already very low.

Cases in the last 14 days:

Honolulu: 1006 (pop = 974,563)
Maui: 350 (pop = 167,417)
Hawaii: 89 (pop = 201,513)
Kauai: 4 (pop = 72,293)
Kalawao: 0 (pop = 86)
Vermont also reports progress, with most counties reporting less than 10 cases per day. With strong action, much of Vermont could be at zero in just a couple of weeks. Once at zero, quarantining arrivals would allow for the state to return to normalcy, similar to Australia or NZ.
Read 4 tweets

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