Two Radical Proposals for ‘Getting to Zero’
"Health experts around the world are now re-evaluating their nations’ responses..as “mitigation policies” have failed to contain two waves of the pandemic — with a..wave of highly infectious variants on the way.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"Health experts around the world are now re-evaluating their nations’ responses..as “mitigation policies” have failed to contain two waves of the pandemic — with a..wave of highly infectious variants on the way.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"By now every[one] knows what COVID mitigation looks like: imprecise lockdowns with no real targets followed by ill-timed openings that result in more exponential grief.
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"And then politicians, who look as dazed as Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, call for another round of lockdowns with no strategy and no goals.
"It’s a policy of constant déjà vu — all pain, no gain and more COVID-19.
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"It’s a policy of constant déjà vu — all pain, no gain and more COVID-19.
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"But a Canadian expert task force and a group of prominent German academics, including virologist Melanie Brinkmann and physicist Matthias Schneider, say enough is enough.
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"Both groups are recommending a dramatic departure from the status quo, with clear targets aimed at engaging the entire community to end COVID-19’s rule.
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"These two proposals now probably represent the best roadmaps for finding a way out of the COVID morass at a time when there has been little critical reflection on what works. (Ireland, by the way, has also put forward another excellent proposal.)
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"The German proposal, lauded in an excellent Lancet editorial, is simply called the No-COVID strategy. Germans are now fiercely debating its contents.
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"Instead of more passivity, the policy calls for an active collective response from the people (a bottom-up process) that embraces tangible and measurable goals leading to the end of COVID-19.
med-bio.physik.tu-dortmund.de/cms/en/Home/CO…
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med-bio.physik.tu-dortmund.de/cms/en/Home/CO…
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“We have to move away from reactive harm reduction and towards proactive control of the pandemic, comprising all social, health and economic areas of our society, with a clear goal that enables a return to freedom and stability: No-COVID,” says the proposal.
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"The strategy comes with several layers: an effective lockdown until German states reach 10 cases per 100,000 people. Germany got to 2.5 cases last year, so this goal is doable: it took Melbourne four weeks to achieve this goal. (B.C. is currently at 84.5.)
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In simple terms, aggressive action brings aggressive declines in exponential growth.
But none of that matters if you don’t protect the gains and move forward.
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But none of that matters if you don’t protect the gains and move forward.
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"Once a state, region or city reaches no cases, it becomes a Green Zone, and normal activity is allowed within carefully watched borders. Adjacent Green Zones are open to normal travel and interactions, protecting hard-won successes and providing rewards of COVID-free living
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"A rigorous test, trace and support system ensures the spread does not resume and keeps COVID cases at zero. To put out spot fires, jurisdictions commit, like Australia and New Zealand, to go hard and early in introducing new lockdowns and measures if there are any outbreaks
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"Over-reacting works when it comes to stopping exponential grief.
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"With this new focus, the population no longer passively consumes daily COVID statistics on deaths and hospitalizations. Instead, people keep track of the expansion of Green Zones, the restoration of civil liberties and the reopening of economies.
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“The No-COVID strategy motivates the population through a common goal and shows citizens a perspective to end this ‘walking on eggshells’ situation permanently,” the report says. “It conveys that we are members of a community who can do something to return to a normal life,
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"but also that you can rely on government measures and aid.”
"Just imagine how different Europe would look today if citizens had demanded their leaders roll out this strategy across the continent and every nation agreed to a common No-COVID goal.
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"Just imagine how different Europe would look today if citizens had demanded their leaders roll out this strategy across the continent and every nation agreed to a common No-COVID goal.
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"The advantages, say the German experts, are self-evident.
“This No-COVID approach is legitimized by a new narrative. There are clearly defined goals and criteria.
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“This No-COVID approach is legitimized by a new narrative. There are clearly defined goals and criteria.
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"The population becomes part of the common objective and one important actor in achieving goals (bottom up, not top down). This way the fight against the pandemic is in the hands of the entire population as a collective task.”
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"What Germany is proposing is what Australia is now doing. To date, only 909 Australians have died. Both the U.K. and the U.S. have daily death tolls greater than that, and Canada has had more than 20 times as many deaths, despite a population only 1.5 times greater.
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"Here’s what Ian Mackay, a virologist, recently told the New York Times.
“We have a way to save lives, open up our economies and avoid all this fear and hassle,” said Mackay, who devised the celebrated and multilayered “Swiss cheese” model for fighting respiratory pandemics
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“We have a way to save lives, open up our economies and avoid all this fear and hassle,” said Mackay, who devised the celebrated and multilayered “Swiss cheese” model for fighting respiratory pandemics
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"In Canada, an interdisciplinary force with expertise in both public health and economies has taken that advice to heart and prepared the Building the Canadian Shield report, offering a radical and bold plan.
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"Its authors argue that mitigation has failed the country and it’s time for Canada to learn from winners: Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, the Canadian North and Atlantic Canada, jurisdictions that have all done a better job..
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"The plan proposes mobilizing Canadians to achieve a 75% reduction in..cases during a four-to-six-week lockdown, followed by restrictions that ensure a continuing weekly reduction in active cases of between 17 and 25 per cent while minimizing economic and societal costs
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"Is this doable? Yes, it is. Atlantic Canada went from a seven-day rolling average of 29 cases a day on Nov 26 to less than eight on Dec 29. Where there is a political will, there is a way.
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"Will it be easy? Absolutely not. “It will require thoughtful targeting and outstanding execution by governments,” the report says.
"The strategy depends on clear goals, not vague assessments of when restrictions should be put in place or lifted.
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"The strategy depends on clear goals, not vague assessments of when restrictions should be put in place or lifted.
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"And it requires a shift from Groundhog Day mitigation which brings surges, lockdowns and more surges in an endless cycle.
At the same time, authorities must ask communities what support they need to get the job done by recognizing “the asymmetric effects of the lockdown..
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At the same time, authorities must ask communities what support they need to get the job done by recognizing “the asymmetric effects of the lockdown..
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"policies across individuals, businesses and communities, and provide direct assistance to those most affected”
"The..bottom line is simple,.something I’ve advocated from beginning of the pandemic: “Move faster than the virus with testing and tracing, isolation and support”
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"The..bottom line is simple,.something I’ve advocated from beginning of the pandemic: “Move faster than the virus with testing and tracing, isolation and support”
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