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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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5 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Isle of Man gets to zero and returns to normalcy. Congratulations!

The government reacted quickly to stop their recent outbreak with a 25-day lockdown.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Hawaii reports progress! Honolulu, Maui, Hawaii all decreasing. Kauai and Kalawao already very low.

Cases in the last 14 days:

Honolulu: 1006 (pop = 974,563)
Maui: 350 (pop = 167,417)
Hawaii: 89 (pop = 201,513)
Kauai: 4 (pop = 72,293)
Kalawao: 0 (pop = 86)
Vermont also reports progress, with most counties reporting less than 10 cases per day. With strong action, much of Vermont could be at zero in just a couple of weeks. Once at zero, quarantining arrivals would allow for the state to return to normalcy, similar to Australia or NZ.
Yesterday US reported 121,469 new cases, down from peak of ~300,000. Daily deaths remain high, 3,912 yesterday.

Despite progress, new variants continue to increase in prevalence. Osterholm warns ‘Category 5’ COVID-19 hurricane is about to hit.

huffpost.com/entry/michael-…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Feb
Two Radical Proposals for ‘Getting to Zero’

"Health experts around the world are now re-evaluating their nations’ responses..as “mitigation policies” have failed to contain two waves of the pandemic — with a..wave of highly infectious variants on the way.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"By now every[one] knows what COVID mitigation looks like: imprecise lockdowns with no real targets followed by ill-timed openings that result in more exponential grief.

2/
"And then politicians, who look as dazed as Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, call for another round of lockdowns with no strategy and no goals.

"It’s a policy of constant déjà vu — all pain, no gain and more COVID-19.

3/
Read 28 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Feb
Brunei, with a population of 430,000, continues success with their Zero Covid strategy.

Their last local case was on 6 May 2020, 275 days ago! Well done, Brunei! Image
Thailand continues to battle a local outbreak which spread in a seafood market near Bangkok. Yesterday they reported 586 new cases, with many cases occurring in their migrant worker population. Image
Similar to Thailand, Vietnam is also battling a local outbreak, and appears to be winning.

After a spike to 110, yesterday they reported only 9 local cases, 19 today.

Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
4 Feb
Lowest-cost virus suppression

We..model both the virus spread and the cost of handling the pandemic. Because it is harder and more costly to fight the pandemic when the circulation is higher, we find that the optimal policy is to go to zero or near-zero case numbers.

1/
Without imported cases, if a region is willing to implement measures to prevent spread at one level in number of cases, it must also be willing to prevent the spread with at a lower level, since it will be cheaper to do so and has only positive other effects.

2/
With imported cases, if a region is not coordinating with other regions, we show the cheapest policy is continually low but nonzero cases due to decreasing cost of halting imported cases. When it is coordinating, zero is cost-optimal.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
3 Feb
Globally, daily new cases have declined since mid-January. 7-day average 525,000 is now the lowest since early November.

Yesterday 382,036 cases.
Denmark continues to improve.

Yesterday 377 new cases, 1/12 of peak 4,500 mid-December. Test positivity also very low at 0.8%. Halving time is 11 days. At this rate, much of Denmark could be at or near zero in a month! Faster if Green Zones are used.
In late-December, Denmark and US had comparable per capita case rates, now 1 in 6. Denmark is showing the kind of case reduction possible when stronger action is taken.
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Feb
Israel extends their lockdown by at least 5-days, and will decide on Wednesday if they will extend it further.

Lifting of restrictions should be based on case numbers, not arbitrary dates. Reopening early likely means lockdown #4 coming soon.

timesofisrael.com/ministers-meet…
Western Australia reported 0 cases of community transmission yesterday. A “donut day” on their first day of their 5-day lockdown. Great news!

No other out-of-quarantine cases in all of Australia
Nearly half of the total covid deaths in Portugal occured in January. Neighboring countries offer help to relieve overflowing hospitals.

Case rates in Portugal remain high, but may be showing signs of slowing. Yesterday they reported 9,498 cases.

nypost.com/2021/02/01/por…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Feb
One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World

"The country’s short, sharp responses have repeatedly subdued the virus and allowed a return to near normalcy. Now its model is being applied to Perth, its fourth-largest city.

1/
nytimes.com/2021/02/01/wor…
"One case. One young security guard at a quarantine hotel who tested positive for the coronavirus and experienced minor symptoms.

"That was all it took for Perth, Australia’s fourth-largest city, to snap into a complete lockdown on Sunday.

2/
"One case and now two million people are staying home for at least the next five days. One case and now the top state leader, Mark McGowan, who is facing an election next month, is calling on his constituents to sacrifice for each other and the nation.

3/
Read 12 tweets

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