Tweet

Jakub Janda

7 Feb, 9 tweets, 4 min read

@JosepBorrellF

THREAD:

WHY EUROPE LOSES TO RUSSIA AND CHINA:

Let us have a look to what led to the complete failure of @JosepBorrellF who was completely humiliated in Moscow. It is a strategic problem, not just ad hoc screw-up.

@JosepBorrellF

Usually, large EU countries select weak High Representatives for Foreign and Security Policy (HiRep) so that HIReps serve as their tools, not as strong players.

So they chose @JosepBorrellF with no real Europe-wide executive track record.

@JosepBorrellF

October 2019: With dozens of European security experts, we voiced our fears that @JosepBorrellF will be a weak EU foreign policy chief:

expertforum.ro/en/borell-eu-l…

@JosepBorrellF

April 2020: When China pressured @JosepBorrellF to soften @EUvsDisinfo report on Chinese disinfo, his staff did it.

@JosepBorrellF lied to E.Parliament and publicly attacked his own analyst @mlrchtr who refused to be censored by Chinese pressure.

nytimes.com/2020/04/24/wor…

@JosepBorrellF

January 2021: Germany + France want to appease Russia,despite continuing Russian hostilities.

So they send @JosepBorrellF to Moscow with no plan, smaller EU allies are shocked. Just to open door. To show EU strategic autonomy,which means acting without coordinating with US.

@JosepBorrellF

February 2021: @JosepBorrellF is completely humiliated in Moscow.

Russia used him for anti-US messaging,attacked EU and expelled 3 EU diplomats as he was speaking at press conference.

Instead of forcing Russia to decrease its hostilities, Russia cleans the floor with him

Right now, EU leadership alongside Germany and France is pitching EU-China climate partnership.

What will happen:
China will use it for reflexive control, telling EU:

If you want our cooperation on climate, then shut up on genocide or EU security interests like Huawei/5G.

This is how strategic reflexive control works:

Russia used it during Obama years:

Saying “you want our (Russian) cooperation on terrorism or missile control? Then shut up on our interests in Eastern Europe.”

Obama did and 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine is the result.

@JosepBorrellF

BOTTOM LINE: @JosepBorrellF is just a weak tool of Germany and France as they both try to appease Russia and China because of economic interests.

Security interests of European allies are ignored.

It will go on because Berlin and Paris want this.

We must stop this.

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More from @_JakubJanda

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

17 Jan

@okundra

(THREAD) GRU GOT BUSTED IN PRAGUE:

HOW A JOINT COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE OPERATION CAUGHT GRU RED-HANDED:

New details of Russian military intelligence (GRU) operation in the Czech Republic are out thanks to @okundra & @spurny2 (Czech weekly magazine @RESPEKT_CZ):

- (Russian) Assistant Military Attache to Prague Dmitrij Bondarenko cultivated a Czech arms leader. Since 2018, Bondarenko developed a clandestine arms deal with him.

- In January 2019, Bondarenko was replaced by another GRU officer Jevgrenij Sergejevic Borisenko in Prague.

- Borisenko kept meeting the Czech arms dealer on monthly basis, discussing “the order (or specific weapons and ammo)”.

- Czech police tracked and arrested a gang of Czech weapons dealers in late May 2020, including this Czech arms dealer - the contact of GRU.

Read 7 tweets

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

29 Dec 20

(Thread) EU leaders are making a strategic mistake for the whole Europe by trying to finalise the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) now.

Let me explain why this mistake will have deep geopolitical implications. It is greed over geopolitical wisdom:

ANGLE #1: TRUST

Just in 2020, China has broken multiple international treaties it has signed up for. It became a rough actor which cannot be trusted.

Just in 2020, we have seen China blackmailing individual EU member states (Germany, Czech Republic, Sweden, others).

Moreover: China openly strategically blackmails Australia, our fellow democracy.

Therefore, we cannot trust what China promises, we need to have hard tools to force it to obey the rules it signed up for. Without this, it is a strategic defeat for the EU.

Read 13 tweets

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

29 Dec 20

(Thread) WHY WE CANNOT TRUST ZOOM FOR PRIVATE CALLS

Many people use Zoom for public events, which is fine.

The problem is that often Zoom, is used for private calls. Many security professionals do not trust it for following reasons:

The main problem is that Zoom has much of its business in mainland China, so under effective control of the largest and most technologically sophisticated totalitarian regime of today.

forbes.com/sites/thomasbr…

1) In the past, data of Western Zoom users were transferred via Zoom servers in China. Zoom claims it will not happen again. But: Zoom in China is under direct control of Chinese laws which force it to cooperate with Chinese intelligence agencies and be silent about it.

Read 5 tweets

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

9 Nov 20

THREAD:

Which Trump era policies should Biden keep on countering Chinese hostile behavior?

I spoke to good friends who served in the Trump administration as career professionals on China policy. Here is what they think:

- what Trump admin really did on China is to impose costs for its hostile actions and China did not really escalate = its possible to raise the costs for China and it will back down once it feels a hard response (in sense of though sanctions and trade restrictions)

- Trump administration cost imposition strategy had two potential outcomes: either it persuades Beijing to rein in bad behavior.

- Or if not, we highlight for the world China’s bad behavior and take steps to protect ourselves and diversify away from dangerous dependence.

Read 7 tweets

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

7 Nov 20

With Trump losing, let me spell out the Trump administration policies which Europe needs the Biden team to keep.

Change rhetorics, not most of the policies.

Let me run you though them:

1) U.S. need to keep being tough on China and Chinese hostile activities in Europe. We need to team up on this, be better allies on this global threat. Keep the pressure on Huawei and other Chinese espionage entities, keep them out of 5G networks.

2) U.S. need to be tough on Russia as long as Russia is aggressive. No Obama-era style naive reset. The Kremlin responds only to power and toughness. No appeasement ever works with dictators. Keep moving U.S. troops to Poland. Keep raising funding for U.S. European defense ops.

Read 7 tweets

Jakub Janda

@_JakubJanda

31 Aug 20

@Vystrcil_Milos

(THREAD) CHINA BLACKMAILS Czech Republic OVER TAIWAN:

Despite hard pressure by Beijing Czech second highest constitutional figure - Senate Speaker @Vystrcil_Milos takes a 90-person parliamentary and business delegation on August 30 – September 5 to Taiwan.

Why it matters:

On 10 January 10 2020, the Chinese Embassy in Prague sent a letter threatening the previous Senate Speaker Jaroslav Kubera - announcing retaliation against Czech companies operating in China if Kubera were to fly to Taiwan.

The letter mentions specific companies (!).

Czech Senate Speaker Jaroslav Kubera received the Chinese Embassy letter on 14 January 2020, during a meeting at Czech Presidential Office.

On 17 January 2020, Jaroslav Kubera met with the Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jianmin.

On 20 January 2020, Kubera died of a heart attack.

Read 14 tweets

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