Thread by @sailorrooscout

It is important to point out that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is effective against the B.1.1.7 variant and reduces virus shedding and transmission. With this most likely being the dominate strain, this means their current vaccines are still effective as they update boosters.

From what we have seen, it is evident that B.1.1.7 (UK) is inherently more transmissible when compared to the original strain ( by ~50%), and it may be right to assume when populations are exposed to this variant, it’ll likely become the dominant strain relatively quickly.

We are seeing this happen in many areas. Hear me out. In a sense, this actually works to our advantage as we witness this selective pressure occur. B.1.1.7 may be essentially allowing us time to administer booster vaccinations against this variant and it’s newly added E484K.

The vaccine is effective against this variant and reduces virus shedding and transmission as we saw in a study conducted last week. Remember that B.1.1.7 picked up the concerning E484K mutation that was first detected in the B.1.351 variant.

But what does it mean? Seeing the same mutation (E484K) occur in multiple locations is clear evidence of convergent evolution. In other words, the variants are adapting in similar ways in response to similar selective pressures and this mutation is under + selection.

In essence, this mutation will only be driven to dominance by sterilizing immunity against B.1.1.7. Sterilizing immunity means that your immune system is able to stop a pathogen, including viruses, from replicating within your body. This is what we want of course.

With B.1.1.7 becoming the dominate strain and despite B.1.351 attempting to gain a fitness advantage as they duke this out, we still need to accelerate vaccination efforts because the vaccines are STILL EFFECTIVE. It’s important to see the forest through the trees on this.

While this most recent study found that this vaccine was found to only provide minimal protection against mild-moderate infection from B.1.351 in young adults please understand that the good news is this is not the dominant variant right now and they are updating the vaccines.

In short, still get vaccinated. Do not let this deter you. Every single effort is being made to further increase the efficacy of these vaccines. They’re still effective and protecting you from severe cases and hospitalization. This vaccine will get to where it needs to be.

If you need further insight, cases in South Africa are plummeting, and it doesn't appear to be related to lockdown stringency. This could possibly be related to B.1.1.7 establishing dominance over B.1.351 and the selective pressure initiated from the vaccines.

While it is too soon to tell, South Africa may be reaching herd immunity status as their reinfection numbers are nonexistent and vaccinations began just this week. I’m starting to wonder. B.1.1.7 may be doing us a favor which would be some good news.
thetimes.co.uk/article/varian…

To clarify some points about this phase 1b/2a double-blind randomized trial conducted in South Africa on the efficacy of AstraZeneca’s vaccine against variant B.1.351. This analysis was not statistically driven when you consider the age, health, and number of participants.

Lacked in diverse demographics & small sample size. It did not study efficacy against severe disease nor was it designed to. Very large confidence interval (-50 to 59.8) so it’s important to take this data with a grain of salt. Note the non-optimal dose interval (4 wk vs. 12 wk).

My thoughts: study was too small to fully answer the question of efficacy against B.1.351 with confidence and it’s likely AZN’s protection against severe cases aligns with J&J due to comparison in design which showed excellent protection against severe COVID due to B.1.351 (89%).