Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires
US fires burn 5-10x less today
Even with extreme warming, area burned will stay about same across century
Climate does increase burned area,
but zoning and forest management much more important
Refs in thread
US fires burn 5-10x less today
Even with extreme warming, area burned will stay about same across century
Climate does increase burned area,
but zoning and forest management much more important
Refs in thread
Fire data 1960-2020 from nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireI…, plus NIFC 2020 estimate from Jan 2 2021
1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52
1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52
1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
... 25% ...from climate change, and "75% is the way we manage lands
eenews.net/stories/106202…
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
... 25% ...from climate change, and "75% is the way we manage lands
eenews.net/stories/106202…
Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554)
fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/pub…
fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/pub…
At time, fires were well-known
Here US deputy of Forest Service: "in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined."
books.google.se/books/about/Fo…
Here US deputy of Forest Service: "in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined."
books.google.se/books/about/Fo…
Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113
fs.fed.us/research/susta…
fs.fed.us/research/susta…
Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn't report back)
insert, p491
biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/2…
insert, p491
biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/2…
4.5-12% of California area likely used to burn *every* year before 1800
2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/
2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/
New York Times 1781, "the smoke was so dense that many persons thought the day of judgment had come"
nytimes.com/1894/09/03/arc…
nytimes.com/1894/09/03/arc…
EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100)
I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages
cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…
I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages
cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…
Notice, that over next 80 years, fire burden will shift with some areas seeing more fire and others less
cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…
cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…
US forest area has not decreased since 1900, actually slightly increased
fs.usda.gov/sites/default/… (p7)
fs.usda.gov/sites/default/… (p7)
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