Despite breathless climate reporting of ever-more fire
Data: Burned area strongly declined
Realistic climate models: area continue to decline, worst-case in 2100 similar to today
Even strong climate policy (70% reduction) makes modest difference
Shouldn't this be reported?
Data: Burned area strongly declined
Realistic climate models: area continue to decline, worst-case in 2100 similar to today
Even strong climate policy (70% reduction) makes modest difference
Shouldn't this be reported?
Normally, we hear that climate will make fire area go through the roof
But that is based on climate-only models, ignoring CO₂ fertilization and population
Such simple climate-only models don't fit data at all
nature.com/articles/nclim…
But that is based on climate-only models, ignoring CO₂ fertilization and population
Such simple climate-only models don't fit data at all
nature.com/articles/nclim…
To get to the lower blue line, we have to enact implausibly strong climate policies, cutting 70% of emissions in all countries over rest of century
Yet, the reduction impact in burned area is only equivalent to reduction seen last ten years
Yet, the reduction impact in burned area is only equivalent to reduction seen last ten years
Even the models incorporating climate, CO₂ and population are still off —
look at how they fit poorly with the dramatic decline in the last two decades
If anything, CO₂-fertilization and population/adaptation does *more* to cut burned area
look at how they fit poorly with the dramatic decline in the last two decades
If anything, CO₂-fertilization and population/adaptation does *more* to cut burned area
Alarmist claims of more-and-more-fire are not based on global facts: burned area will continue to decline in coming decades
But climate is a problem: fewer emissions mean even less burned area
The right policy way: to balance those benefits with added costs of climate policy
But climate is a problem: fewer emissions mean even less burned area
The right policy way: to balance those benefits with added costs of climate policy
Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions
Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction
Read my peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction
Read my peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts
Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct
Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world
My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct
Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world
My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Perhaps surprisingly, human exposure to wildfire
is NOT mostly about increased burned area
but about more people in areas with frequent wildfires (Californians moving into the risky wildland–urban interface)
nature.com/articles/nclim…
is NOT mostly about increased burned area
but about more people in areas with frequent wildfires (Californians moving into the risky wildland–urban interface)
nature.com/articles/nclim…
Burned area 1901-2018 with data sources here
https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1350800303839469569
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