Despite breathless climate reporting of ever-more fire

Data: Burned area strongly declined

Realistic climate models: area continue to decline, worst-case in 2100 similar to today

Even strong climate policy (70% reduction) makes modest difference

Shouldn't this be reported?
Normally, we hear that climate will make fire area go through the roof

But that is based on climate-only models, ignoring CO₂ fertilization and population

Such simple climate-only models don't fit data at all

nature.com/articles/nclim…
To get to the lower blue line, we have to enact implausibly strong climate policies, cutting 70% of emissions in all countries over rest of century

Yet, the reduction impact in burned area is only equivalent to reduction seen last ten years
Even the models incorporating climate, CO₂ and population are still off —

look at how they fit poorly with the dramatic decline in the last two decades

If anything, CO₂-fertilization and population/adaptation does *more* to cut burned area
Alarmist claims of more-and-more-fire are not based on global facts: burned area will continue to decline in coming decades

But climate is a problem: fewer emissions mean even less burned area

The right policy way: to balance those benefits with added costs of climate policy
Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Perhaps surprisingly, human exposure to wildfire

is NOT mostly about increased burned area

but about more people in areas with frequent wildfires (Californians moving into the risky wildland–urban interface)

nature.com/articles/nclim…
Here are the original graphs with each ensemble member

nature.com/articles/nclim…
Burned area 1901-2018 with data sources here

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More from @BjornLomborg

17 Jan
Despite breathless climate reporting on ever-more fire

Total area burned across the world has *declined* over past 117 years

Reduced about 25% over last two decades alone

Shouldn't this be reported?

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…, globalfiredata.org/analysis.html, gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/static/gwis.st…
This trend is entirely uncontroversial, well known across all research, here from Science magazine, science.sciencemag.org/content/356/63…

This is mostly because of more people (humans don't want fire near their houses) and more agriculture (farmers don't want their crops on fire)
Here is the historical reconstruction with explanations — notice that climate (direct temperature and moisture changes) has lead to *less* fire, but CO₂ fertilization has increased amount of green stuff that can burn
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 6 tweets
15 Jan
Despite breathless climate reporting warning us of ever more damaging extreme weather

US relative flood damage has strongly declined from 1903-2019, from 0.5% of GDP to 0.05% today

Update of fig 10, sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
facebook.com/bjornlomborg/p…
This fits well with global weather-related damages not increasing (actually slightly decreasing)
Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 4 tweets
13 Jan
Dear Greta,

Worth taking these 'predictions' with a bucket-full of salt

One of the lead authors, Paul Ehrlich, has been predicting the imminent end of mankind for 50+ years, here from CBS national news in 1970

(from PBS retroreport.org/video/the-popu…)
Yes, climate is a problem, but not the end of the world

UN estimates the cost of climate change in 2070s equivalent to losing 0.2-2% of income

In UN middle scenario: instead of each person being 3.63x as rich, we will 'only' be 3.56x as rich

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
At the same time, the UN expects us to live much longer, have much better educations

- and inequality will drop dramatically, possibly below the levels 200 years ago

You can read about this and much more in my peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
Breathless climate reporting told us of an extraordinary 2020 hurricane season

Yes. It was extraordinary. Extraordinarily *weak*

Globally 2020 was one of the weakest in past 40 years

Accumulated Cyclone Energy was 76% of average (1980-2010)

Update of agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
But we were told of 2020 'record' hurricanes?

Yes, in North Atlantic

But most climate reporting conveniently left out:

much lower hurricane energy in Western Pacific+Eastern Pacific

lower energy in Southern Hemisphere, Nothern Hemisphere and Global

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
We have data back to 1970, but before satellites (~1980), it is probably undercounted. Moreover, 1970s and 1980s were relative hurricane lulls, so starting there can give a spurious upward trend

Still, 2020 was a very un-active year
Read 8 tweets
4 Jan
Contrary to breathless climate reporting, number of major landfalling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — has not increased since 1900

(Notice unprecedented major hurricane drought from 2006-16)

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o Image
Similarly: Despite breathless climate reporting, the number of landfalling US hurricanes does not show an increase since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
Contrary to breathless media reporting, land-falling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — does not show an increasing number of hurricanes since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Yes, 2020 Atlantic hurricane season very powerful

But Accumulated Cyclone Energy (the integrated metric of frequency, intensity+duration):

2020 only 14th-strongest

1933 — almost a century ago — still strongest, followed by 2005, 2017, 1893 and 1926

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/d…
Read 6 tweets

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