1/ Prediction: if you come back to @joinClubhouse in a year, you won't recognize what it pivoted to. Here's why:
As #content, learning and enjoyment per minute is low. After listening for hours in multiple rooms, I don't feel like I used my time well. Podcast has higher info density.
As a #social experience, Clubhouse doesn't feel social. There's no feedback for speakers and listeners. It's drop-in audio, not drop-in audio chat. @Twitch @Minecraft are more interactive hangouts.
Too many speakers doesn’t work. In a 1 hour show, 20 speakers talk for 3 minutes each. They spend half of the 3 min on personal intro.
Too few speakers doesn’t work. When I pick a room to join, I lean towards rooms with more speakers. +1 if my favorite creators like @garrytan are in there. But then I'm let down when they're more marketing mascots than speakers.
No context when dropping in. 60% of the time I have no idea who the speaker is, what they're talking about and how it relates to the topic. I enjoy shows more when I listen from the start. Skilled moderators "reset rooms": "for new listeners here's what we're talking about...".
Too many notifications. I already set them to infrequent. How can Clubhouse feed my #FOMO without them?
Audio quality is great but will go down. Long-tail content will be less enjoyable. Now everyone is holding a $1,000 iPhone close to their mouth. Way better than @Zoom @Google Meet with laptop mics far away. Quality will go down when Clubhouse launches @Android and desktop.
Now Clubhouse feels like real time @Eventbrite / @LinkedIn events. If the product doesn't pivot, DAU will suffer and churn will creep in.
I still think @joinClubhouse will be successful. Clubhouse is social meets AR. Our physical reality will be more and more augmented by digital experiences.
Augmenting our brains with audio will be a much bigger market. It's one of my learning hacks. Lower lift than video. My mother doesn't listen to podcast yet.
@pmarca talked about the forklift driver augmented with AirPods listening to 8 hours of @YouTube a day. @andrewchen touched on this in the @a16z this post. a16z.com/2021/01/24/inv…
Clubhouse is acquiring a huge customer base. Any #pivot and new use case has huge ROI because of the scale. It can resurrect dormant users both in-app and from traditional media, like how @Twitter brings people in via @FoxNews mentions.
More people want to be #creators. Clubhouse is simple tooling that lowers the content creation barrier. Creators get free traffic (for now, get in early!).
And yes I will stick around and keep creating on @joinClubhouse: @rayshan
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