Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #pivot

Most recents (24)

At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).

But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.

A thread.

Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).

In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!

2/17 Image
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).

In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.

Read 17 tweets
It seems that #Zoltan has been quite busy lately!

The newest, already 5th part of his "War"-series, was published on January 6th.

In this little #thread i've summarized some of the highlights of his piece "War and Peace:

"... four “war” dispatches last year: War and Interest Rates, War and Industrial Policy, War and Commodity Encumbrance, and finally, War and Currency Statecraft. In these, I identified six fronts (..) in “macro-land” () where Great Powers were going “at it” in 2022:
"the G7’s financial blockade of Russia, Russia’s energy blockade of the EU, the U.S.’s technology blockade of China, China’s naval blockade of Taiwan, the U.S.’s “blockade” of the EU’s EV sector with the Inflation Reduction Act,
Read 35 tweets
Ever since the #Fed meeting last week 2YR has been below the FFR.

2YR has long served as a proxy for the mkt perceived terminal FFR.

Hence the mkt doesn't trust the #Fed's estimates of 5%+ rates but thinks this is THE terminal rate.

What will the #Fed do?

A thread.

In the last 46 yrs there were quite a few instances with negative 2YR-FFR spread, 17 to be exact.

Interestingly enough, almost every time the spread went negative, the #Fed actually cut rates.

Let's take a closer look.

Not counting the current one there were 16 instances with negative 2YR-FFR spread.

Only once out of 16 times the #Fed hiked FFR and that was from Oct 1978.

However, at one point the #Fed started cutting and altogether FFR was unchanged in a period of 23M through Aug 1980.

Read 14 tweets
#pivot ancora lontano…
#Fed hawkish come previsto 👇👇👇
Ovviamente è Powell che mette tutti d’accordo 😁
La discesa del #DXY sembra inarrestabile.
Ma questa resistenza storica potrebbe diventare un supporto…
@VitoLops Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.

The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!

It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!

Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.

3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.

I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target

Read 16 tweets
This week we get the 2 most important things that will end this year:
1) FOMC meeting on Wednesday
2) November #CPI report tomorrow that will likely determine what we'll hear by the #Fed on Wednesday

Can Nov #CPI make the #Fed go sub-50 this week?

A thread.

We had a better-than-expected #CPI in Oct which was only the 2nd beat on the headline, and 3rd beat on the core this yr.

Since beats on the #CPI have been so rare, many (among which @biancoresearch) have been using it as an argument against potential beat again in Nov.

2/11 Image
OTOH rare beats look more like an argument FOR rather than an argument against another beat.

Just based on this, now odds are stacked for the #CPI to come better-than-expected in the coming months.

But does that include Nov?

Read 11 tweets
Below is a MEGA thread containing the 100 greatest winners from 1880-2009 📈

LIKE 👍 & RETWEET 🔄 to spread the wealth of knowledge💸

Charts are sourced from none other than the GOAT William O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks"

But first, why do these charts matter?

They go back to 1880. This shows the timeless principles that we are using here. It is the law of supply and demand. These patterns work because they are the effect of institutional demand, not the cause.

This strategy is RESILIENT
If your goal is to identify stocks with big potential, you need to know what will drive prices up. Institutional demand is what moves prices. They are are the biggest buyers (and sellers) in the market. They want growth in earnings, sales and margins.
Read 108 tweets
📰📌 Sabah okumalarından notlar.

1) #Çin'de yaşanan protestolar muhtemelen günün en önemli maddesi. Covid önlemlerine karşı halk Pazar günü sokaklara dökülmeye başladı. Aslında çok önceden biriken gerilim Perşembe günkü yangınla taştı denilebilir. Image
Konunun insani ve sağlık boyutu yanında gerek Çin ekonomisi ve siyasi yapısı gerekse de yaklaşan kış ve artış gösterecek Covid-19 sıkıntıları nedeniyle küresel ekonomideki büyüme açısından da ciddi riskleri var. Image
2) FT: Küresel #enflasyon, veri göstergelere göre, muhtemelen zirveyi görmüş olabilir.

Enflasyonun, önümüzdeki aylarda, yön bakımından aşağı doğru bir eğilimde olması sevindirici olsa da bu temkinli yaklaşmakta yarar olan bir haber. FED #pivot konusunu daha önce açıklamıştım. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct #CPI came in way better than consensus estimates and even better than I projected.

This is only the 2nd beat on the headline and 3rd on the core #CPI this yr.

Does that mean the #CPI has really started to come down and the #Fed can #pivot?



In the details this was a good report. MoM unadjusted:
1) Food +0.7%, same as Sep
2) Energy +1.0% vs -2.6% in Sep due to higher gas prices (+3.1% vs -5.6% in Sep), while #electricity and #natgas went down (-1.3% and -4.0% respectively vs +0.8% and +2.6% respectively in Sep)

3) Apparel unexpectedly went down by -0.6% vs +2.2% in Sep
4) New vehicles edged up to +0.5% vs +0.4% in Sep
5) Used vehicles and trucks -2.3%, slower than in Sep (-4.2%)
6) Medical care commodities -0.02% vs -0.09% in Sep
7) Alcoholic beverages +0.8% vs +0.1% in Sep

Read 18 tweets
The @federalreserve’s #FOMC has now moved in 75 basis point increments four times this year to get to a sought-after #policy destination very quickly.
Yet, the destination seems to have moved further away with each subsequent elevated #inflation print, and with #employment in the country remaining very tight.
Hence, while moving the #FederalFunds rate at a very fast 75 bps increment seemed almost inconceivable several months ago, especially as the #Fed was still undertaking quantitative easing (#QE) in March, we have become used to this extraordinary increment.
Read 15 tweets
Fourth 0.75% hike from US central bank the Federal Reserve to ~4%…BUT… some language suggesting this pace of such rises will slow … “determining the pace of future increases …will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy..” #pivot…
All eyes now on the Chairman Powell press conference in just over an hours time. At the last one (on eve of last IK decision and the notorious mini budget) he sounded like some sort of anti inflationary Robocop… sending dollar and US interest rate expectations surging…
“Time is coming” to discuss moderation in pace of rate increases says Powell - may come at next meeting or the meeting after that… although statement other than that sounded pretty hawkish and not very “pivoty”… “we have not overtightened, there’s still ground left to cover”
Read 9 tweets
1. Le pédomane d’extrême-droite #Matzneff, toujours visé par une enquête pour plusieurs viols sur mineurs, ose encore publier. Il n’eut pas de mal à trouver un éditeur, mais François Bousquet, éd. La Nouvelle Librairie, plus soucieux de sa vitrine que de ses amis, se défausse de
2. ses devoirs avec courage, disant surseoir mais faisant voler en éclat la collaboration avec Krisis (adieu l’à-valoir), la revue d’Alain de Benoist appartenant à Éléments, le bimestriel Nouvelle Droite du Grece dont le rédac-chef est François Bousquet…
3. et l’éditorialiste Alain de Benoist. Colère étouffée chez Matzneff mais il peut compter sur ses amis de toujours pour le sortir de son trou. Déjà chez Éléments où le violeur d’enfants est chez lui, nb de journalistes de la 1re à la nouvelle génération le défendant corps et âme
Read 26 tweets
Read the Broadbent speech. It says - not very subtly - that the bond market is waaaayyyy too hawkish on BoE.
maybe some common sense has prevailed #pivot…
far more than "optimal" monetary tightening is priced in (not-so-subtle hint number 1)
The tightening that is priced in, would KILL the economy (not-so-subtle hint number 2)
Read 4 tweets
1/n So many people try to think so hard whether a #Fed #pivot is coming and when, so they could "buy the bottom" while Fed is pivoting. When in reality, the #market (both #StockMarket and #credit) are so much more complicated and unpredicatble then that.
2/N Even though I cannot claim I can predict what the Fed will do, I think they'll most likely going to behave in waves, similar to the 70's. By that I mean waves of rising ->falling->rising IR.
3/N The reason for that is this is the most likely scenerio for inflation itself. The different components of inflation moving in different tempo (time frames). For example, shulter prices definently affected by IR, but it takes some time to affect... Image
Read 17 tweets
There have been lots of talks around easing rent #inflation and how lagging the Shelter #CPI really is.

Its 12M (or longer) lag makes it difficult to use in assessing current/future #inflation.

So what can the #Fed do?

Let's take a look at some other measures.

A thread.

Lots of recent comments by the #Fed have been about "sticky" and "high" #inflation.

But #inflation is neither sticky nor high as evidenced by the headline #CPI in the last 3M (unadjusted).


Then the #Fed tries to spin it by saying core #inflation is "sticky" and "high".

If we exclude the shelter component (unadjusted), core #CPI is quite low and in a downtrend.

Now obvious Q is what if it reverses its course just like it did in 2021 and heads up again?

Read 14 tweets
The #Fed is watching closely the employment reports to get a better understanding where #inflation is and where it is heading.

Why they do it and what exactly are they looking for in the labor mkt to know for sure the #inflation has peaked?

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

The #Fed is led by theoretical concepts like the Phillips Curve.

It was first introduced in 1958 and since then updated in several versions.

All of these versions involve #inflation or wages and UR.

So let's explain it in more detail.

2/17 Image
wage growth = LT wage growth - f(UR) + inflation expectations

f(UR) - function of unemployment rate

High #inflation leads to higher #inflation expectations.

With higher expected #inflation workers demand higher wages.

Hence companies are forced to raise consumer prices.

Read 17 tweets
The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.

Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...

Should the #Fed #pivot and why?

Let's demystify all this.

A thread.

Those that follow me know I've been calling the #Fed to #pivot for quite a while.

Ever since mid-May it's been clear to me the #US #economy is in a #recession which should prompt the #Fed to #pivot in Sep.

And every important economic indicator warranted the #Fed #pivot.

But the #Fed decided to turn the blind eye to the #economy in an effort to try to regain some of the credibility they lost last yr by "transitory" talk.

So instead of amending things, they have made another policy error.

Here is more about this:

Read 25 tweets
Read 14 tweets
Analysis: #NASDAQ $BIOL

Case 561 #BIOLASE Inc.

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

BIOL 1/3
Daily Chart: Jan. 2021 #trendline support has yielded and is now heading for the #SMA 200 and 0.5716. Farther down the #pivot at 0.4700 then block #support 0.3872- 0.2254 with balance at 0.1651. Price needs to .....

BIOL 2/3
..... close above control at 1.0594 for medium term #bullishness. Above 1.3718 quickly targets 1.65/70.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.

BIOL 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Analysis: #NASDAQ $LAZR

Case 560 #Luminar Technologies Inc.

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

LAZR 1/3
Daily Chart: Underpinned by the #SMA 50 and currently trading below the SMA 200 (20.46) heading for 17.77. Below there block #support 15.60- 13.28 fortified with #trendline and .....

LAZR 2/3
..... synthetic support. To the upside, price needs to close above a minimum 27.11 then above the #pivot 31.19.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.
Read 3 tweets
Analysis: #NASDAQ $VXRT

Case 559 #Vaxart Inc. - Revisited

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

VXRT 1/3
Daily Chart: Strong close above the #pivot and resistances but failed to crack 11.65 and now correcting lower. A close above synthetic #resistance at 15.54 is required to turn .....

VXRT 2/3
..... medium term #bullish. Block #support is 8.49- 6.02 with balance levels at 4.70 and 3.08.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.

VXRT 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Analysis: #NASDAQ $MVIS

Case 558 #MicroVision Inc - Revisited

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

MVIS 1/3
Daily Chart: Unable to close above the trendline-#pivot and falling back down heavily. Immediate #support is 11.77/65 with #trendline support at 10.71. Farther down block support 8.55- 5.45 with the #SMA 200 sandwiched between .....

MVIS 2/3
..... at 6.77. A close above 28.59 is required to target the objectives.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.

MVIS 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Analysis: #NYSE $XXII

Case 555 #22ndCentury Group Inc.

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

XXII 1/3
Daily Chart: The trend is very #bullish but currently correcting from the lofty levels and backing off, unable to maintain a close above trendline #pivot. Immediate support .....

XXII 2/3
..... is 4.60 but this is unreliable. Block #support at 4.22- 3.48 but stronger below at 2.93/37, with #trendline support at 2.43.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.

XXII 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Analysis: #NYSE $SKLZ

Case 554 #Skillz Inc.

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

SKLZ 1/3
Daily Chart: All gains from Dec. 2020 have been wiped out. #Trendline resistance has yielded and the short term trend is #bullish. Immediate #resistance begins at the #pivot 22.73 with .....

SKLZ 2/3
..... control at 26.39 but medium term bullishness can only be achieved on a close/hold above synthetic #resistance, currently sloping at 29.98.

The #Strategy is printed on the image.

SKLZ 3/3
Read 3 tweets

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