Citibank 1/5: Data releases Friday:
#USD: Nonfarm #payrolls - fewer new jobs leave markets pricing a bigger fiscal expansion – US economy adds just 49K jobs in Jan, sharply weaker than consensus for 105K. But hiring as measured in the household survey shows employment up by 201K,
#USD: Nonfarm #payrolls - fewer new jobs leave markets pricing a bigger fiscal expansion – US economy adds just 49K jobs in Jan, sharply weaker than consensus for 105K. But hiring as measured in the household survey shows employment up by 201K,
Citibank 2/5: leading the unemployment rate to decline from 6.7% to 6.3%. Average hourly earnings rise 0.2%MoM. Market react to the weaker jobs report (higher US yields and weaker USD) by pricing an increased probability of a larger US fiscal package.
Citibank 3/5: Citi analysts now expect a ~$1.5trln package in March & raising US nominal GDP by 0.7pp with about 2/3 of that showing up as real growth & 1/3 in faster inflation. Citi analysts expect 5.4%YoY real US GDP growth in 2021 and 2.1-2.2%YoY core PCE inflation at year-end
Citibank 4/5: #CAD: Extent of Canadian job losses in January is much larger than expected, but does not change Citi analysts view for a stronger rebound later in the year. Employment declines by 212.8k jobs in January, a much larger drop than the 20k loss expected though entirely
Citibank 5/5: part-time employment driven. Unemployment rate rises from 8.8% to 9.4% but hours worked rise and together with solid estimates for December GDP, Citi analysts see supportive signs for Q1 GDP despite new lockdowns.
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