Francesc Riverola - Profile picture
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Apr 14, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
UBS 1/4: Don't expect the #volatility lull to last.
Wall Street’s most prominent gauge of investor anxiety, #VIX index of implied stock #volatility, closed at a fresh pandemic-era low near 16.7 last week. But we see reasons to expect periodic bouts of higher volatility near term UBS 2/4: First, investors are likely to be torn between optimism over accelerating growth and worries over higher inflation. Second, optimism over the course of the pandemic is being tested by the spread of new variants of the virus.
Apr 14, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
ING Bank 1/5: Latest #eurozone production figures are weak, but the future looks bright
Industrial production in the eurozone is being held up by input shortages at the moment. This will lead to weaker growth in the first quarter, but underlying demand is strong and that makes us ING Bank 2/5: upbeat about prospects for the bloc as it reopens later in the year.
February industrial production showed a decline of 1% compared to January. Production had fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year but dipped back later.
Apr 14, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Deutsche Bank 1/4: Talking of #vaccines, while we went into yesterday expecting that the CPI reading would dominate attention, the bigger news story instead turned out to be on the pandemic, as the US authorities recommended that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine be paused Deutsche Bank 2/4: after there were 6 reported cases of a severe blood clot. Though this was among a total number of over 6.8 million who’d received the vaccine in the US, all of the cases happened in women aged between 18 and 48, with symptoms occurring 6-13d after #vaccination
Apr 14, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
OCBC Bank 1/4: Overall, the #DXY index was left south of the 92.00 support. This leaves the near-term technical picture bearish for the broad USD, with the immediate target at the 55-day MA (91.52). This round of USD weakness is EUR- and JPY-led, rather than cyclicals-led as in OCBC 2/4: the case in early-Feb & mid-March. Overlay this with resurgence of confirmed cases in places like India & Canada, & the J&J vaccine set-back, this lack of reaction from the cyclicals may be a reflection that the vaccination / recovery positives have been fully priced in
Apr 14, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Apr 14, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
Citibank 1/7: US #CPI strong on transitory components & solid shelter prices
Citi analysts take – the strong increase in March US core CPI released overnight is in line with upside surprises expected in the coming months as a number of components normalize. Citibank 2/7: Key shelter prices in CPI however show signs of potential earlier-than-expected firming with another solid increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the key shelter price component of consumer price inflation and the largest share of CPI.
Apr 14, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here. Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Apr 13, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
JP Morgan 1/5: #US: Our base case assumption is that widespread vaccinations, along with the immunity acquired by many from contracting Covid-19, allows the pandemic to wind down over the summer, with most normal economic and social activity resuming by the fall. JP Morgan 2/5: If this occurs, the economy should see a very strong surge in economic growth throughout this year, with unemployment falling to 4% in early 2022. However, beyond that point, barring further fiscal stimulus, growth should slow down and this could allow inflation
Apr 13, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
JP Morgan 1/7: Thought of the week:
Recent econ data are showing signs that the U.S. is recovering more quickly from the pandemic than expected. Nowhere is that more notable than in last week’s PMI numbers. As in the chart, U.S. recorded a strong March ISM manufact index of 64.7, JP Morgan 2/7: far surpassing the consensus expectation of 61.5. This 37-year record high is a reflection of robust manufacturing activity driven by strong growth in orders, production and employment, along with increases in prices paid for inputs.
Apr 13, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
MUFG 1/5: #EUR: Brighter vaccination prospects ahead in #Europe?
Chart highlights a notable acceleration across key EU countries that will greatly improve optimism over a faster pace of #vaccination roll-outs. France has seen a pickup with over 0.5mn vaccines administered on Fri MUFG 2/5: a one-day record. In Germany on Thursday, 719k vaccines were administered while in Italy the 7-day average of administered vaccines hit 200k for the first time over the weekend.
Apr 13, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
SEB Bank 1/4: Tense waiting for US inflation. Base effects, from falling prices during the start of the pandemic last year and higher energy prices, are expected to push up the inflation rate in both the US and the rest of the world in March and April. SEB Bank 2/4: Most interesting, however, is what is happening with underlying US inflation & how this is affected by bottlenecks in industry, strong household finances in the wake of the latest round of household checks and pent-up consumption needs when the econ begins to reopen
Apr 13, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Citibank 1/5: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7% Citibank 2/5: median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% - Citi analysts expect a strong rebound in retails in March with upside risks seen for many components in the retail control group. This could also help keep prices for various goods elevated after increases over the last year.
Apr 13, 2021 4 tweets 3 min read
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD. Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Apr 13, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ‘crown jewel’ of the EU’s fiscal stimulus – the EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund – ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
Apr 13, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Deutsche Bank 1/5: The big highlight today will be the US CPI reading for March at 13:30 London time, which has emerged as a key focal point for markets given the debates surrounding inflation and its implications for monetary policy moving forward. Indeed, part of the reason Deutsche Bank 2/5: that markets have brought forward their expectations for Fed rate hikes is based around rising inflation expectations that they think the Fed might have to rein in, with 2yr US breakevens at 2.678% as of last night’s close.
Apr 13, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
Credit Suisse 1/6: Key #StockMarket Themes:
#SP500 strength has extended to the top of its multi-year channel at 4125/30, with the market now seen moving into typical “extreme” territory. Our bias though is for the rally to extend further yet to our Q2 objective at 4200, Credit Suisse 2/6: where we would then be highly alert to signs of a potential top and correction/consolidation.

#Nasdaq100 is not unsurprisingly seeing a pause at its 13880 record high but with a bullish “outside day” & “head & shoulders” base in place we continue to look for a
Apr 13, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
TD Securities 1/5: Details for The Day Ahead: #USD The CPI report is likely to show an m/m as well as y/y pickup, and not just due to energy prices this time. We forecast a 0.6% m/m jump in the headline (consensus: 0.5%). TD 2/5: We caution against extrapolating, but the core reading will probably be boosted by a bounce in travel prices, most notably for airfares, hotels, & used vehicles (TD: 0.3% m/m; cons: 0.2%). We see some upside risk for rents as well after the pickup in last month's report.
Apr 12, 2021 9 tweets 5 min read
Rabobank 1/9: #CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
Speculators’ net #USD positions held in positive territory for the 4th consecutive week, though overall size dropped moderately along with the softer tone of the greenback in the spot market. Previous to this the market had not had Rabobank 2/9: a run of net long positions since June 2020. The USD has been one of the best performing G10 currencies this year reflecting reflation optimism and a shift in expectations regarding Fed rates policy.

#EUR net longs dropped to their lowest level since March 2020.
Apr 12, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
Citibank 1/11: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3% Citibank 2/11: - Citi analysts expect a solid increase of 0.23%MoM in core CPI in March with upside risk for many components. The team expects March to show the start of price gains for a number of components that have been held down by soft demand.
Apr 12, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Citibank 1/6: EU-US divergence - mind the gap(s)!
Citi analysts - #Europe is still struggling to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, while the US is continuing to recover. Euro area real GDP has contracted by 0.7% QQ (-4.9% YY) in 4Q-20. Citibank 2/6: Over the same period, US GDP has risen by 1.1% QQ (-2.4% YY). Citi analysts focus on 6 of the more salient aspects of the transatlantic divergence between the euro area & US & conclude the gap is unlikely to narrow any time soon & could even widen in the short-term.
Apr 12, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
SEB Bank 1/4: US #CPI in focus this week. Probably the most anticipated figure this week is the US March CPI tomorrow, where inflation is expected to increase markedly mostly due to rising energy prices. We also expect core inflation to start accelerating with a weak comparison SEB Bank 2/4: month last March adding to a higher y/y change. Response in long-term inflation expectations remain crucial, determining if higher prices turn out to be temporary or not. China export figures are due on Tuesday,