ING Bank 1/6: #Riksbank to stay cautious despite recent economic resilience
Despite a rise in Covid-19 cases and fresh restrictions, recent Swedish data has held up better than hoped. That means little need for fresh #Riksbank stimulus, though we'd still expect a cautious tone.
Despite a rise in Covid-19 cases and fresh restrictions, recent Swedish data has held up better than hoped. That means little need for fresh #Riksbank stimulus, though we'd still expect a cautious tone.
ING Bank 2/6: The central bank looks set to signal flat interest rates until at least 2024, but still, we expect the krona to strengthen gradually later this year.
The Riksbank meeting this week should have a limited impact on Sweden's krona.
The Riksbank meeting this week should have a limited impact on Sweden's krona.
ING Bank 3/6: With central banks globally becoming more concerned about overly strong domestic currencies, and leaning against this trend (Riksbank’s January decision to change the way it accumulates FX reserves provides a case in point),
ING Bank 4/6: we think it unlikely that #centralbank will deliver a hawkish surprise, as #SEK strength would not be welcome.
Hence, although the economy did better than expected and CPI is likely to continue rising near term, this is unlikely to alter #Riksbank’s cautious stance.
Hence, although the economy did better than expected and CPI is likely to continue rising near term, this is unlikely to alter #Riksbank’s cautious stance.
ING Bank 5/6: We expect #SEK to continue trading around the #EURSEK 10.10 gravity line and the absence of a hawkish bias suggests the #EURSEK 10.00 level should not be tested this week.
ING Bank 6/6: Looking further ahead, #SEK should restart its appreciation trend from 2Q onwards once the eurozone and Swedish economy start to recover, and cyclical currencies rebound. We expect #EURSEK to move below the 10.00 level in 2Q this year.
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