Thread by @faisalislam

interesting chart from the Bank of England last week on freight traffic data into and out of Dover, showing indeed it getting back near levels seen last January in final week, but still notably lower than normal for previous two years (18-19 and 17-18)

In its response to RHA’s 68% down claim, Cabinet Office said short straits HGV traffic was 82% of normal last week (the chart above finishes the week before that) so these two bits of data are in sample ballpark comparing with last year specifically

gov.uk/government/new…

Cabinet Office also say that according to French data around 50% of lorries coming over from EU are going back empty, though that compares to the 30% in normal situation...

The Government is focussed on flow, and avoiding its reasonable worst case scenarios of queues of 7000 causing myriad other disruptions - so its interest in the latest weeks is understandable, and that is encouraging...

But if you apply 50% empty number rather than 30%, compare whole Jan with latest year from above chart where whole Jan available (18/19)... bit of rough maths on the figures for chart above does indicate a notable hit to truck volumes... though not as much as suggested by RHA...

When apply above data, with info we get on ground
- food exporters avoiding groupage/sending single loads instead of full trucks
- stockpiled inputs sufficient for 4-6 weeks, proper flows starting in earnest now...

Can seen why hauliers concern at same time Govt relief on flow