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Tiho Brkan Profile picture
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9 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
This was our call a year ago...

Contrarian investing at its best.
Not only has the medical cannabis ETF gone up a lot from its depressed lows,

But the $USD has gone down a lot vs the Canadian Dollar.

That’s what we call a one-two punch!

#greatdealsonly Image
My mentor used to say:

Timing isn’t everything, it’s the ONLY thing.
Small caps have outperformed large caps ✅

Oil & gas has left the market in its dust last few quarters ✅

Medical cannabis is on fire ✅

Global uranium producers are on fire ✅

$USD is a sinking ship, our strongest call for 2020 and beyond ✅ Image

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More from @TihoBrkan

Tiho Brkan Profile picture
5 Feb
A fierce case of FOMO is fuelling one of Brisbane’s biggest housing booms in years with open-home inspections looking more like a scene from The Hunger Games as desperate buyers treat dwindling stock like languishing loo paper. domain.com.au/news/brisbane-…
An explosive year of growth has spurred property prices on the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast to new record heights, with a wafer-thin slice of beachfront paradise now fetching millions.

domain.com.au/news/house-pri…
Thread from 2019 outlining:

a) up and coming shortages QLD will face (upward price pressure)

b) relatively attractive pricing vs Sydney & Melbourne (underpinned by continued interstate migration)

Read 5 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
31 Jan
Hedge funds and other speculators are holding over $35 billion in net short positions, betting against further declines in the US Dollar.

Often, that has led to a short squeeze and a rise in the exchange rate; and often a $USD rally is negative for risk assets (stocks).
The majority of the short positions are skewed in three currencies, though.

The Euro, Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Kiwi Dollar.
Have we seen a regime change (change in trend) for the USD?

If true this will have a major impact on various asset classes & regional economic growth in the world.

History shows during $USD downtrend lead to European real estate + Emerging Markets & Asian stocks outperformance.
Read 7 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
25 Jan
1/ Howard Mark's Oaktree on the attractiveness of real estate debt:

"Oaktree's broad range of credit strategies affords us a unique vantage point from which to compare the relative value, and we believe that private real estate credit presents an attractive proposition."
2/ "BB-rated corporate bonds are trading at around 4.5% yield-to-worst, and B-rated bonds are in the 4-6% range. Publicly traded CMBS are faring slightly better, with single-asset single-borrower B-rated bonds trading in the 6-7% yield-to-worst context."
3/ "Compare those with private real estate loans, which are anticipated to be performing throughout their term and are regularly pricing in the 5-8% range for first mortgages and the 9-12% range for more junior positions in the capital structure."
Read 5 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
24 Jan
"Sixty-three percent of affluent children between the ages of 18 and 22 say financial stability in retirement will depend on inheriting money."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Should inheritance tax be increased meaningfully to battle inequality and wealth/capital hoarding?

"Inheritance tax dates back to the Roman Empire, which collected 5 percent of inherited property in order to pay soldiers’ pensions. Today, the practice is widespread."
“Relatively high level [of inheritance] is a sign of the continent’s low social mobility, keeping education, income and social connections from evolving over generations.”

European old money is at least one of the causes for lack of opportunities and below average growth rates.
Read 6 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
24 Jan
Almost every real estate and private equity GP out there will tell you they looked at 100s of deals before they found this special one, which they are presenting to you.

They will deny it but honestly, 99% of the time, we all know that’s not the case. 🤥

(Continues)
Their motivation and overall purpose isn’t quality, but quantity.

The more deals they do, the more fees they earn (entry, exit, management, refinance, profit share, etc).

There is a difference between an investor who buys their own deals, and an asset gather chasing larger AUM.
The finance industry is fee driven money machine — whether it’s the big towers of NY, London or HK,

or the general partners & fund managers syndicating deals.

Yes, it is possible to find great people out there... but it’s rare.

Advice to LPs: be careful with your money!
Read 4 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
23 Jan
Russell 2000 small-cap index.

A year ago we were very bullish on the small-cap index. It is the only thing we bought during the Covid crash.

We are not bullish anymore.

The way I got taught is: "Vertical, euphoric & parabolic moves are terminal, bull market ending events."
The worse thing in this business is to have someone — who never called the bottom — attempt to call the top.

Here is my call on small-cap stocks back in late March 2020.

Small caps like the Russell 2000 index look extremely unattractive now.

In real estate, agents tell you "this is a buyers market" or "this is a seller's market".

With that in mind, we believe this is not a great buying opportunity, instead this is a great selling opportunity.
Read 4 tweets

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