Small caps like the Russell 2000 index look extremely unattractive now.
In real estate, agents tell you "this is a buyers market" or "this is a seller's market".
With that in mind, we believe this is not a great buying opportunity, instead this is a great selling opportunity.
As a side note, we rarely (if ever) do this, but have started buying some OTM puts on the Russell 2000 index.
Don't really like to speculate, shorting isn't a wise strategy, but currently, we have a parabola & euphoria so it really is an interesting risk/reward setup.
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Should inheritance tax be increased meaningfully to battle inequality and wealth/capital hoarding?
"Inheritance tax dates back to the Roman Empire, which collected 5 percent of inherited property in order to pay soldiers’ pensions. Today, the practice is widespread."
“Relatively high level [of inheritance] is a sign of the continent’s low social mobility, keeping education, income and social connections from evolving over generations.”
European old money is at least one of the causes for lack of opportunities and below average growth rates.
Almost every real estate and private equity GP out there will tell you they looked at 100s of deals before they found this special one, which they are presenting to you.
They will deny it but honestly, 99% of the time, we all know that’s not the case. 🤥
(Continues)
Their motivation and overall purpose isn’t quality, but quantity.
The more deals they do, the more fees they earn (entry, exit, management, refinance, profit share, etc).
There is a difference between an investor who buys their own deals, and an asset gather chasing larger AUM.
The finance industry is fee driven money machine — whether it’s the big towers of NY, London or HK,
or the general partners & fund managers syndicating deals.
Yes, it is possible to find great people out there... but it’s rare.
Doing RE underwriting at high valuations after a 11-year bull run tells you exactly what you need to hear.
RISK is here!
Whether your focus on the unleveraged yield on total cost or development feasibility studies — it's getting ridiculously hard to find anything attractive.
One London deal from earlier today.
Loss-making propositions start popping up everywhere as the market becomes overpriced.
As my mentor used to say: "Tiho, are you going to work for free?"
It wasn't like this 5 years ago, while almost every deal worked 8-9 years ago!
A deal from Prague, also from today (in Czech Krona).
Agents are in la-la land & this owner believes money grows on trees.
Yes, it is an amazing property in a great location — but you buy it, do the hard work & exit at realistic market comps with a €1.5 million loss.
"What makes a country wealthier is not the valuation of the companies going higher, but companies producing a greater quantity or potentially more valuable products, which is generally reflected in rising profits or sales."
2/ "This is why we tend to associate the rising value of stocks with a greater net worth as a stock market generally grows in line with increased profits. The same is true for an entire economy."
3/ "It is the economy’s ability to generate more value that makes it richer, not its abstract measure of money. If the government intervenes to ensure a buoyant stock market or fewer bond defaults, it is not creating wealth: it is simply removing accurate price discovery."