Ben See Profile picture
10 Feb, 10 tweets, 4 min read
You're in a room full of climate scientists. You ask how many think we'll exceed 2C of global warming within decades. You ask if it's possible the carbon 'budget' for 2C has already nearly been used up. You ask whether humans can adapt to all the impacts of well over 2C..


Most scientists expect 2.5 to 6C of warming within decades. These are truly horrific levels of warming happening with virtually unprecedented speed in the history of animal life on Earth.

Guardian policy? Ignore this reality virtually everyday.…

New computer climate models suggest profoundly destructive 2C by around 2043 (give or take 9 years).

These models can't yet factor in all dangerous feedbacks properly so with emissions still rising we can't be sure 2C won't hit as early as…

'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it. But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed'

The Guardian deliberately ignores this in virtually all reporting.


The remaining carbon 'budget' for 1.75°C may be negative (ie, too late).

The range is wide but we may be close to using up the 2°C budget.

We should be taking emergency to change systems, not waffling about how much more destruction is…

'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture.

We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to.

** There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. **

At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them.'…

'We’ve left it too late to reduce emissions enough to avoid all of the impacts of climate change, but we could still avoid a large proportion of them by reducing emissions soon, and fast.' (from March 2014 😔)

Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia…

It was well understood before the Paris Agreement that 2C wouldn't be safe for Earth's species, humanity included.…
Reports claiming that 2°C is achievable almost always assume that geoengineering will work.

But many scientists are extremely sceptical about the idea that sucking vast quantities of CO2 out of the atmosphere can be done on the stupendous scale required.…
2C is a death sentence for 100s of millions of people.

At 3-5C, billions could/would die (2C may trigger further unstoppable 'Hothouse' warming).

But corporate media won't explain that the corporate world is committing the most horrifying of crimes.…

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More from @ClimateBen

7 Feb
Arctic sea ice reflects the sun’s rays. As ice cover decreases, more of the sun’s rays are absorbed by the ocean, leading to further warming.

Summer sea ice will begin to totally disappear by 2035 (give or take 14 years), with catastrophic consequences in the Arctic, and beyond.
Scientists agree that impacts in the Arctic itself will be disastrous for people and wildlife.

I feel the word 'catastrophe' is correct for global impacts whether ice loss exacerbates already catastrophic warming and/or extreme weather a little or a lot.

"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic". ⚠️

+4 million people who inhabit the Arctic including 10% who are Indigenous are threatened.…
Read 7 tweets
2 Feb
Hi @GrogsGamut

Could you explain to your readers that the carbon 'budget' for dire 1.8C of global warming may already be negative (ie too late), and that we may be very close to a negative budget for deeply catastrophic 2C which may hit by 2034 and will likely hit by 2045 or so?
'17% (one-in-six) chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C has already been exceeded'

Even with net-zero 2030 we could head well over 1.5C towards the theoretical Hothouse Earth danger zone.

The 1.75C 'budget' may have already been exceeded too.…
Until the public grasps the extreme mind-boggling urgency, there will be no meaningful action.

Thread confirming that today, with average temperature already at 1.25C (using a conservative, probably misleading C19th baseline), 1.8C may already be gone:
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
1/Industrial capitalism is a poison.

Yes, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced towards zero in the 2020s for any reasonable chance of decent human survival, however, global warming is just one part of our predicament. Chemical, plastic, light & noise pollution, deforestation
2/, destruction of fertile soils, wiping out of insects, birds, reptiles, amphibians, & mammals, the collapse of major ecosystems, overkilling of ocean and terrestrial life,..all of these and more are an immediate threat to Earth's species including primates.

3/Economic growth really is killing life on Earth. Both the IPBES and IPCC acknowledge the need for a total transformation of the global economy. The IPBES has specifically pointed to economic growth as the problem. Every policy we read about is a joke. We need emergency change.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
40% of Earth's plants, particularly trees, are threatened with extinction meaning most life on Earth is in immediate danger.

Economic growth based on destructive industrial agriculture, urbanization, dam-building, mining & logging can and must be…
The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone, according to the largest survey yet of plant…
'Researchers say the planet may be losing plant species more quickly than science can find, name and study them, which could have big consequences in the search for food crops that are resilient in the face of climate change and new medicines.'…
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
A commitment to reach so called 'net zero' by 2050 and protect a mere 30% of land & ocean by 2030 is a commitment to continue emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases while completing the destruction of ancient rainforests, coral reefs and Arctic sea ice. A commitment to horror.
'The combined prospects of an economic stimulus and infrastructure package—both of which will boost fossil fuel demand—spell a more prosperous 2021 and 2022 for the world’s biggest polluters.'…
Mammals, amphibians, reptiles and birds are also likely to disappear on a catastrophic scale in the Amazon and other naturally rich ecosysterms in Africa, Asia, North America and Australia if temperatures rise by more than 1.5C'
Emergency action required.…
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
'For many of us, coffee is essential.'
A 'daily luxury'.

We don't need coffee, but we do need to transform the global food system away from Big Business Agriculture asap.

One thing not suggested, despite the ecological damage: stop drinking…
This is directed to myself as I haven't yet given coffee up, but I've slashed my intake towards zero drastically over the last 6 months. This month I've started cutting my chocolate intake. I mention this just out of interest and to confirm how serious is the ecological crisis.👍
That sounds ridiculous reading it back. Or does it? Imperfect communication on the need for both individual and system change and how they go hand in hand... Hopefully you get the idea.
Read 4 tweets

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