🧵1⃣
A clear example of misuse of RCP8.5 to present an implausible future

1. Use most extreme climate sensitivity
2. Use >95th percentile outcome
3. Use SSP5-85 as conditionally deterministic
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…

With these assumptions "cannot exclude" SLR of 1.24m in 2100
2⃣
Here would be an equally appropriate statement from the same research:

"If the real world behaves as simulated with CanESM5 (highest EffCS of CMIP6: 5.62 K), we can exclude a GMSL rise of >0.82 m for SSP2-RCP4.5 with more than 95% confidence based on IPCC AR5 methods"
3⃣
Worst case scenarios are only worst case scenarios if they exist within an envelope of plausibility

When falling outside that envelope they cease to be worst case scenarios & instead become fictional -- detached from reality

Climate science continues to have a RCP8.5 problem

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

12 Feb
🧵 on new paper:
Raupach et al 2021 on climate change and hailstorms
nature.com/articles/s4301… Image
Summary of trends in hail-prone regions around the world
TL;DR = no up trends, some down Image
Very cool figure on global hail probability Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
🧵Good news and bad news on the Biden Administration's efforts to consider a "social cost of carbon" via an Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Good news
The IWG is (apparently, for now) employing a methodology that does not use the RCPs or SSPs
nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
Bad news
The methodology of the IWG employs scenarios that are more out-of-date than the RCPs/SSPs -- selected from the EMF-22 scenarios
nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
Very important new preprint (in 2nd round of review at a Nature journal) by array of leading TC researchers on (lack of) 1851-2019 Atlantic hurricane trends
researchsquare.com/article/rs-153…

Quote below on US landfalls ...
Remarkable
1970s and 1980s may have been the least active period for hurricanes in the Atlantic in centuries
Is climate change causing a reduction in US hurricanes?
Maybe
Read 5 tweets
3 Feb
RIP all coal growth scenarios

According to @GlobalEnergyMon 2020 saw a net addition of coal capacity of 12.5 GW, part of a coal collapse over past decade

Expect capacity change to go negative soon, depending on China policies

globalenergymonitor.org/projects/globa…
Reminder that all scenarios underpinning climate research project coal growth to mid-century & most to 2100
Figure via @jritch (Ritchie & Dowlatabadi 2017)

The collapse of coal is very good news for the planet but requires a major reset among researchers
This paper has the details, comments welcomed
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
Read 4 tweets
2 Feb
In early 1989, Senator Joe Biden sent some questions to GHWB Secretary of State James Baker, asking about US leadership on climate change. Here is how Baker responded. Image
How things went off track from a promising beginning is quite a story & well told by Prins & Rayner 2007, in The Wrong Trousers sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_…
A key Q to ask is: what ever happened to the IPCC's original "Response Strategies Working Group" (i.e., WG III, later "Economics" and then "Mitigation" moving away from policy options)?

The IPCC transitioned from informing the FCCC to advocating for it's instruments (esp Kyoto) Image
Read 7 tweets
1 Feb
A Remarkable Decline in Landfalling Hurricanes
@RogerPielkeJr rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable…
The 2020 update on overall global tropical cyclone frequency via @RyanMaue
Here (again courtesy @RyanMaue) is our 2020 landfall update, presented as line graph with trends by request
Updates this paper: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
Read 5 tweets

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