🧵1⃣
A clear example of misuse of RCP8.5 to present an implausible future
1. Use most extreme climate sensitivity
2. Use >95th percentile outcome
3. Use SSP5-85 as conditionally deterministic
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…
With these assumptions "cannot exclude" SLR of 1.24m in 2100
A clear example of misuse of RCP8.5 to present an implausible future
1. Use most extreme climate sensitivity
2. Use >95th percentile outcome
3. Use SSP5-85 as conditionally deterministic
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…
With these assumptions "cannot exclude" SLR of 1.24m in 2100
2⃣
Here would be an equally appropriate statement from the same research:
"If the real world behaves as simulated with CanESM5 (highest EffCS of CMIP6: 5.62 K), we can exclude a GMSL rise of >0.82 m for SSP2-RCP4.5 with more than 95% confidence based on IPCC AR5 methods"
Here would be an equally appropriate statement from the same research:
"If the real world behaves as simulated with CanESM5 (highest EffCS of CMIP6: 5.62 K), we can exclude a GMSL rise of >0.82 m for SSP2-RCP4.5 with more than 95% confidence based on IPCC AR5 methods"
3⃣
Worst case scenarios are only worst case scenarios if they exist within an envelope of plausibility
When falling outside that envelope they cease to be worst case scenarios & instead become fictional -- detached from reality
Climate science continues to have a RCP8.5 problem
Worst case scenarios are only worst case scenarios if they exist within an envelope of plausibility
When falling outside that envelope they cease to be worst case scenarios & instead become fictional -- detached from reality
Climate science continues to have a RCP8.5 problem
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