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Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
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11 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
$MVIS at $3 bil is the single most absurd pricing in public markets that I have ever seen. This is a nearly-worthless trading sardine, detached from any actual underlying business. [thread]
$MVIS is up today because it announced is close to developing early prototype samples of a LIDAR product. This is not news to anyone who has been following the company. The company is a laggard in the space, and the stock has risen on LIDAR hype, due to SPAC comps, for months.
$MSFT, who is partnered with $GM in Cruise for autonomous vehicles, knows $MVIS better than anyone, and recently had a chance to purchase the company for under $200 mil when Craig-Hallum was hired by management to try to find a buyer. Spoiler alert: it did not. Nor did anyone.
Today marks the 4th massive gap technical breakout in the past year. In other words, it's tired.

Don't let the multi-year chart fool you; the market cap is now 13x higher than in 2011, due to unending dilution. We have shorted today's rally. Do not get caught holding this bag.

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More from @MidwestHedgie

Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
12 Feb
Let's talk $CYDY. As an M.D. and a human, I _hope_ their imminent phase 2B/3 trial result for severe covid-19 is a success. However, as an investor, I'm short the stock, because it's trading like it's 1999, with a $4 bil mkt cap, even though its only clinical asset is from 1999.
the company's sole asset: leronlimab. It's a monoclonal antibody developed in the late 1990s that was selected because of its ability to occupy the CCR5 receptor (and thus prevent HIV binding), while having little to no effect on the normal functioning of CCR5
When I first met the CEO, long before Covid-19, he was already telling a story that was too good to be true. Essentially, "We have this HIV drug (leronlimab, formerly PRO 140), that we paid $3.5 million for, and it came with $200 million of drug supply."
Read 26 tweets
Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
17 Apr 20
Another day, another brutally flawed study going around flu bro (bra?) twit.

Here's the study: the author's tested residents of Santa Clara Co, CA to see if they had antibodies to the virus. Exactly 50 out of 1,500 did. That's 1.5%. (thread 1/)
Alas, the authors decided that 1.5% was not enough. They tested too many Karens and not enough Joses, so based on the presumption that the true prevalence of disease (something they guessed at) is much higher in males and minorities, they raised their estimate of prevalence. 2/
Based on test characteristics provided by the manufacturer, and 67 blood samples at Stanford, the authors believed that the test has almost no false positives, but many false negatives, so they raised their estimate of prevalence even higher. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
10 Apr 20
Link to official Heinsberg coronavirus data summary. This was the area of Germany hardest-hit early. Approximately 2/3 of the families contacted agreed to participate in testing. Preliminary data is from first 500 people tested. 1/ land.nrw/de/pressemitte…
Both PCR (for active infection) and Ab (resolved infection or infection > a few days) were done. 2% pcr positive, 14% Ab positive, total 15%.

If you assume deaths and infections were evenly distributed across the region, total deaths / total infections = 0.37% thus far. 2/
The antibody test is reported as >99% specific, so should be few false positives.

Given roughly 13% (2% of 15%) of observed infections are ongoing, case-fatality rate estimate will probably end up more like 0.4% than 0.37%. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
15 Mar 20
Florida is overrun with undiagnosed coronavirus. (thread) Data from the ESSENCE-FL report for the first week of March (through Mar 7), published Mar 11.

1. Statewide flu-like activity at urgent cares and ERs is significantly up. Somewhat unusual to rise this late in year.
2. This uptick could, absent other data, represent either flu or COVID-19. Unfortunately, we know from the % of positive flu tests, which continues to fall rapidly, that it is not flu. It's coronavirus.
3. The extra cases are not localized to any one particular region in Florida. Literally, all of Florida is seeing an uptick in influenza-like illness (that is not influenza).
Read 6 tweets
Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
17 Dec 19
Be extremely careful taking @SeekingAlpha bios/articles at face value. For example, this guy Zhiyuan Sun, @Woodrow8664, who writes glowingly of , claims to be CFO of a Fintech, and a former hedge fund manager. Image
I can't find any record of Tatry Capital L.P. ever having existed on Google or sec.gov. And the "fintech" is "a student run startup." (side note: hello Utah) Image
This author has more than 1,000 followers, has published extensively on @SeekingAlpha Pro, and yet his writing contains massive factual errors that should not have passed even cursory editing. Take this article on :
Read 7 tweets
Midwestern Hedgie Profile picture
21 Apr 19
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been harassing Randeep Hothi for months. Why? Because @elonmusk is a malignant narcissist, with a history of repeated multi-billion dollar securities frauds, and Randeep has been, using completely legal means, gathering data documenting Elon's lies.
Elon Musk's behavior has been consistent and abhorrent. When Tesla employee Martin Tripp became a whistleblower, Musk threatened him, and was responsible for concocting a false police report of an "active shooter threat." arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…
Having been unable to silence Randeep for months, while he's revealed data about Tesla production numbers and other thorns in Elon's side, Musk has changed tactics. Instead of using his own hired goons to harass Randeep, he's now using the police, using false police reports.
Read 9 tweets

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