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11 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Thursday update on COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in England continues to show an improving picture.

7-day moving average for hospital admissions continues to fall. Possible sign that fall may be accelerating - vaccines?

The regional picture is analysed below. 1/4 Image
Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions is at 0.73 and looks like it may be starting to fall further. That will be a sign that vaccines have broken the link between infections and admissions and it’s time to discontinue this approach to R estimation. 2/4 Image
Hospital deaths are falling rapidly and are now well below the first wave peak. 3/4 Image
Regionally, the rate of fall has accelerated in all areas, with southern areas now falling slightly faster. The North East is lagging a bit too, as can be seen by the shallower gradient. 4/4 Image

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
17 Dec 20
Our latest update on England admissions and deaths sees the 7 day MA for the former now above the previous second wave peak in mid Nov, and the current rate of growth is equivalent to a doubling time of around a month. There's considerable regional variation, covered later. 1/4
Our estimate of R, based on admissions, may be levelling off at just under 1.2. As already noted though, this would imply doubling approximately every month, so is not a sustainable position at the current high level of admissions. 2/4
For deaths, after a few days where the 7DMA had levelled it has now clearly started to increase again, which is to be expected given the trend in admissions. Unfortunately we can expect this to continue and it is likely to reach a new second wave peak during the Xmas week. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
15 Dec 20
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

The 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions is rising rapidly again nationally. Doubling time is around a month.

As ever, the regional picture (below) is key to understanding the national picture. 1/4 Image
Based on recent hospital admissions we estimate that R was approaching 1.2 for England as a whole in late November.

As ever, we would emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different trends in infections. 2/4 Image
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals still appears to be slowly falling.

We’ve seen fewer late-reported deaths than anticipated in our Saturday update, so it no longer seems like deaths have stopped falling nationally. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
12 Dec 20
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

The 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions is rising rapidly again nationally. Doubling time is around a month.

As ever, the regional picture (below) is key to understanding the national picture. 1/4
Based on recent hospital admissions we estimate that R was above 1.1 for England as a whole during late November.

As ever, we would emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different trends in infections. 2/4
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals also now appears to be rising again.

We adjust the data to allow for reporting delays (based on the recent pattern) which allows us to identify the change in trend earlier than other techniques. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
10 Dec 20
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

With admissions above trend, the 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions is rising again nationally.

As ever, the regional picture (below) is key to understanding the national picture. 1/4 Image
Based on recent hospital admissions we estimate that R went back above 1.0 for England as a whole, during the second half of November.

We again emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different trends in infections. 2/4 Image
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals is still falling, having peaked at around 300 deaths a day.

We expect this will continue follow admissions, which means further falls in the short term, but increased admissions may be replicated in the deaths too. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
8 Dec 20
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

After a week with admissions above trend, the 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions is rising again nationally.

As ever, the regional picture (below) is key to understanding the national picture. 1/4
Based on recent hospital admissions we estimate that R went back above 1.0 for England as a whole, during the second half of November.

We are keen to emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different patterns of infections. 2/4
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals continues to fall, having peaked at around 300 deaths a day.

We expect this will continue follow admissions, which means further falls in the short term, but increased admissions may be replicated in the deaths too. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
5 Dec 20
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

Despite a couple of days with admissions above trend, the 7-Day Moving Average for hospital admissions at notional level continues to fall. 1/4 Image
Our R estimate is based on hospital admissions is up slightly for England as a whole, at just over 0.9.

We are keen to emphasise that this is a composite of different regions with different patterns of infections. 2/4 Image
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals has now begun to fall, having peaked at around 300 deaths a day.

We hope and expect that this will continue follow admissions downward for at least the next couple of weeks. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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