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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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11 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Updated numbers (as of 2/8): So far in 2021, 0.6% of registered Republicans in AZ & PA have changed their party registration. For Democrats, it’s 0.2%. In other words, 99.4% of Reps and 99.8% of Dems have stayed with their parties. A little deceleration in the past week or two.
So, uh, not quite an exodus
Net change away from the GOP is about 1/10th of Biden’s margin of victory in PA and AZ — and that overstates the danger to Republicans since most of these switchers are to NPD/Other and will end up voting against Democrats next time anyway.

Worth reminding people yet again that party identification is not vote choice, and expressive disapproval of the GOP is not the same as approval of/intention to vote for the Dems
I am! There is no aggregate change in opinion, especially where it matters, either!
See the linked tweet, and a newsletter column tomorrow

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Feb
The evidence Dems are presenting at Trump’s trial is pretty damn terrifying. A reminder of just how far radicalization on the right has gone. Some data:

- 20-40% of GOP partisans think violence is justified*
- Upwards of 15% might even *enjoy* it

That’s like ~20-40m people...
*To some degree and depending on the conditions.

Some reading:

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…

stevenwwebster.com/research/schad…
It is totally fair to point out that Dems are about as likely as Reps (in polls) to say political violence can be justified. But we also have to acknowledge that only one side of the aisle stormed Congress to try and murder the VP and Speaker of the House.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
9 Feb
Re: Public opinion on schools: People should note that the vast majority of parents saying they want kids to “return” belong to the white, professional, insured class. Parents of color (many in multigenerational households) desperately want their children to stay remote.
A new wrinkle in racial disparities in education is that the divide on covid is also happening WITHIN schools — IE in big urban high schools with sizable white and POC populations, the data I’ve seen show nearly unanimous POC opposition to “returning”

Yes, there certainly are interactions with pop density and student-to-teacher ratios

Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
5 Feb
People are really running wild with this stuff. Totally unwarranted IMO. Just a fraction of a fraction of GOP members have left on net — maybe a quarter of a percent of the national party reg. Roughly ~99.7% of GOP voters remain. This is not a party in crisis
Party registration is not the same as vote choice. I still think it’s less than an even bet whether Biden’s vote share goes up from 2020 to 2024. History is not on his side here

I think the polarization interaction is more important here, and certainly that the Bush 04 example isn’t instructive of the trend, but I could be wrong. Anyway, the point is that people should stop covering the party reg data as doomsday for the GOP.

Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Feb
Hard for me to admit, but honestly folks, we have no reason not to think the same biases that hurt most polls in Nov 2020 aren't artificially boosting Biden's approval rating right now. Eg there are huge differences between polls that use only demo v demo + political weights.
To believe that Biden is at 61% approval you have to also think that about 1/5th of Trump voters approve of Biden now, which seems... tough. The average seems much closer.
Two points: (1) I guess biased estimates are still useful, if you're aware of the bias.

(2) Of course you can, if you aren't expecting polls to be magically precise (they never will be) and accept a pretty large margin of error
Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Feb
For what it’s worth, over the last month of our Economist/YouGov data I have seen almost no breakdown in the relationship between partisanship and Trump approval (and, earlier, support for QAnon). The idea that Greene/Jan 6 is costing the GOP... anything? has little-no evidence.
Related:
This is a good question. To me, the party-switching stories aren’t much more than just data porn for anti-Trumpers. You gotta look at the total numbers and the share of Dems/NPAs switching too.

Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
24 Jan
The GOP is actively trying to purge its pro-democracy, anti-coup members. We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file. A safe assumption for policymakers is that it will be a lot worse next time.
Even if they don’t succeed at removing Cheney and McConnell, GOP-controlled states are going to spend the next 4 years passing new restrictive voting laws, cutting polling places, killing mail-in voting and drawing partisan maps to give themselves even bigger advantages.
Hard to see the Republicans as anything other than a fundamentally minoritarian, anti-democracy, anti-election party right now.
Read 5 tweets

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