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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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5 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
People are really running wild with this stuff. Totally unwarranted IMO. Just a fraction of a fraction of GOP members have left on net — maybe a quarter of a percent of the national party reg. Roughly ~99.7% of GOP voters remain. This is not a party in crisis
Party registration is not the same as vote choice. I still think it’s less than an even bet whether Biden’s vote share goes up from 2020 to 2024. History is not on his side here

I think the polarization interaction is more important here, and certainly that the Bush 04 example isn’t instructive of the trend, but I could be wrong. Anyway, the point is that people should stop covering the party reg data as doomsday for the GOP.

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Feb
Hard for me to admit, but honestly folks, we have no reason not to think the same biases that hurt most polls in Nov 2020 aren't artificially boosting Biden's approval rating right now. Eg there are huge differences between polls that use only demo v demo + political weights.
To believe that Biden is at 61% approval you have to also think that about 1/5th of Trump voters approve of Biden now, which seems... tough. The average seems much closer.
Two points: (1) I guess biased estimates are still useful, if you're aware of the bias.

(2) Of course you can, if you aren't expecting polls to be magically precise (they never will be) and accept a pretty large margin of error
Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Feb
For what it’s worth, over the last month of our Economist/YouGov data I have seen almost no breakdown in the relationship between partisanship and Trump approval (and, earlier, support for QAnon). The idea that Greene/Jan 6 is costing the GOP... anything? has little-no evidence.
Related:
This is a good question. To me, the party-switching stories aren’t much more than just data porn for anti-Trumpers. You gotta look at the total numbers and the share of Dems/NPAs switching too.

Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
24 Jan
The GOP is actively trying to purge its pro-democracy, anti-coup members. We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file. A safe assumption for policymakers is that it will be a lot worse next time.
Even if they don’t succeed at removing Cheney and McConnell, GOP-controlled states are going to spend the next 4 years passing new restrictive voting laws, cutting polling places, killing mail-in voting and drawing partisan maps to give themselves even bigger advantages.
Hard to see the Republicans as anything other than a fundamentally minoritarian, anti-democracy, anti-election party right now.
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Jan
Democrats would need to be FDR-levels of popular and productive to avoid mid-term losses the first go-around. I don’t know about y’all, but while I think Biden is talented, I’m doubtful he can lead the party to THAT strong a record. Operating assumption is GOP Congress in 2022.
Not true at all — if you go back and read what I wrote, or talk to my colleagues, you’ll know I was bullish on Biden pretty much the entire primary

Final thought: You can save this tweet for later, but I really doubt this changes the electoral environment at all. For one thing, the GOP’s favorability ratings haven’t suffered at all from the attack on the Capitol. If anything it has helped them.

Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Jan
I think people are thinking too hard about this. Just look at the polls. Most of the starting reforms proposed by Biden are pretty darn popular news.gallup.com/opinion/pollin…
Getting rid of the filibuster is also pretty popular (depending on how you frame the question)
So if voters want, for ex, a public option, and they’re okay with getting rid of the filibuster to do it, I’m not so sure the conventional wisdom about Biden/Democrats incurring huge costs by “forcing” policies through the branches of gov is right
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 Jan
One of the more depressing things about covid, from a political-psychological & sociological point of view, is just how little many Americans’ support for public health (the bureaucracy, professionals, and safety measures) has risen over the course of 400k deaths.
Covid has tested our commitment to each other in a bleak, dispiriting way. After a year of deaths, partisanship & conspiratorial thinking are still the leading predictors of whether people will even wear masks. Makes you wonder what could really prepare us for the next pandemic.
If a virus that kills over half a million Americans by the end of its pandemic stage isn’t enough to significantly shore up bipartisan funding for public health, expand access to healthcare, and significantly raise opinion for a robust public response, what is?
Read 6 tweets

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