Share this page!

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Twitter logo
4 Feb, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Hard for me to admit, but honestly folks, we have no reason not to think the same biases that hurt most polls in Nov 2020 aren't artificially boosting Biden's approval rating right now. Eg there are huge differences between polls that use only demo v demo + political weights.
To believe that Biden is at 61% approval you have to also think that about 1/5th of Trump voters approve of Biden now, which seems... tough. The average seems much closer.
Two points: (1) I guess biased estimates are still useful, if you're aware of the bias.

(2) Of course you can, if you aren't expecting polls to be magically precise (they never will be) and accept a pretty large margin of error
Yes, it's a poll of all adults. But AP-NORC's numbers have been pretty biased toward Ds for some time, including in the election. This fits broader pattern of standard demo weight not being enough, in both RDD and online polls.

I'm not trying to pick on NORC, this is a problem that the whole industry is facing
Partisanship is just too strong for this to be believable. It's not perfect, but our Economist/YouGov data (which weights to make sure the poll has the right share of Trump voters in it) has GOP approval of Trump at 11%, not the 23% in NORC. Much closer to Trump-era polarization.
Sorry, that should say GOP approval of Biden. I’m done tweeting for now

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with G. Elliott Morris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Feb
For what it’s worth, over the last month of our Economist/YouGov data I have seen almost no breakdown in the relationship between partisanship and Trump approval (and, earlier, support for QAnon). The idea that Greene/Jan 6 is costing the GOP... anything? has little-no evidence.
Related:
This is a good question. To me, the party-switching stories aren’t much more than just data porn for anti-Trumpers. You gotta look at the total numbers and the share of Dems/NPAs switching too.

Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
24 Jan
The GOP is actively trying to purge its pro-democracy, anti-coup members. We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file. A safe assumption for policymakers is that it will be a lot worse next time.
Even if they don’t succeed at removing Cheney and McConnell, GOP-controlled states are going to spend the next 4 years passing new restrictive voting laws, cutting polling places, killing mail-in voting and drawing partisan maps to give themselves even bigger advantages.
Hard to see the Republicans as anything other than a fundamentally minoritarian, anti-democracy, anti-election party right now.
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Jan
Democrats would need to be FDR-levels of popular and productive to avoid mid-term losses the first go-around. I don’t know about y’all, but while I think Biden is talented, I’m doubtful he can lead the party to THAT strong a record. Operating assumption is GOP Congress in 2022.
Not true at all — if you go back and read what I wrote, or talk to my colleagues, you’ll know I was bullish on Biden pretty much the entire primary

Final thought: You can save this tweet for later, but I really doubt this changes the electoral environment at all. For one thing, the GOP’s favorability ratings haven’t suffered at all from the attack on the Capitol. If anything it has helped them.

Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Jan
I think people are thinking too hard about this. Just look at the polls. Most of the starting reforms proposed by Biden are pretty darn popular news.gallup.com/opinion/pollin…
Getting rid of the filibuster is also pretty popular (depending on how you frame the question)
So if voters want, for ex, a public option, and they’re okay with getting rid of the filibuster to do it, I’m not so sure the conventional wisdom about Biden/Democrats incurring huge costs by “forcing” policies through the branches of gov is right
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 Jan
One of the more depressing things about covid, from a political-psychological & sociological point of view, is just how little many Americans’ support for public health (the bureaucracy, professionals, and safety measures) has risen over the course of 400k deaths.
Covid has tested our commitment to each other in a bleak, dispiriting way. After a year of deaths, partisanship & conspiratorial thinking are still the leading predictors of whether people will even wear masks. Makes you wonder what could really prepare us for the next pandemic.
If a virus that kills over half a million Americans by the end of its pandemic stage isn’t enough to significantly shore up bipartisan funding for public health, expand access to healthcare, and significantly raise opinion for a robust public response, what is?
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
12 Jan
The last week has proved that almost nothing can stop the GOP’s politicization of their illiberalism—now ranking near Poland and Turkey’s right-wing parties for their endorsement of authoritarianism. They have radicalized their voters against democracy. Dark days for the republic
We might have three major (endogenous) ideological dimensions in America now: left-right economic, open-closed social attitudes, and liberalism-authoritarianism in support for democracy. That last divide is untenable. It’s incompatible with our government.
If the GOP can basically just campaign against pro-democracy, anti-corruption speech with traditional culture-war arguments (against censorship &c), it’s really hard to see the path forward. No electoral incentive for leadership, no accountability. Are we too far gone?
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @gelliottmorris has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @gelliottmorris!

Read all threads by @gelliottmorris