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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
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11 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
the oh-so-woke Ontario Science Table presented graphs purporting to show share of LTC of total deaths (left) and ICU (right). According to these figures, LTC accounts for substantial majority of deaths (~70%) but micro-fraction of ICU admissions. Has this been observed elsewhere?
2/ on its face, this figure contradicts a claim that I've been making: that vaccinating vulnerable in LTC would be effective means of mitigating concerns over projected ICU overcrowding. But is figure correct?
3/ if figure is correct, this seems like pretty fundamental information for policy-makers. So why havent Ontario science advisors ever mentioned it previously?
4/ if true, it's amazing that virtually every LTC fatality (~70% of all COVID fatalities) died without ICU treatment. It would be nice to be able to crosscheck this against original data, but, unfortunately, detailed data is not made public.

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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
11 Feb
on Jan 21, 2021, just as vaccine supply in Canada dried up, Science Table, Ontario's woke COVID advisors, belatedly urged that govt to accelerate vaccination of LTC residents (relative to young HCWs outside LTC residences). Exactly what I'd urged on Dec 22
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/t…
2/ even this belated recognition by woke Science Table omitted the main reason why vulnerable 80+s, especially LTC 80"s, deserved priority even ahead of young HCWs: its direct impact on hospitalizations given expected pending hospital crisis
3/ I said this not to disparage contribution of young doctors, HCWs in ICUs. My father was a surgeon, two nieces are doctors. My family has benefited greatly from prompt and inspired care in Toronto ICUs. My point was policy: vaccinating seniors was best way to avert ICU crisis
Read 5 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
9 Feb
amidst COVID projection porn by Ontario "Science Table", actual data on new cases in Ontario LTC homes has had spectacular decline since early Jan, when govt figured out that LTC residents were getting shortchanged in allocation by public health (relative to hospital admin etc)
2/ yesterday, there were only 11 new cases among LTC residents (14 - Feb 17), down from 160-200 daily at beginning of January. In Dec, nearly all vaccines appear to have been appropriated by young HCWs - meritorious but not nearly as vulnerable as LTC residents.
3/ because hospitalization rates are extremely high for cases among seniors, esp 80+ seniors, such a dramatic reduction in LTC cases should have immediate and observable impact on hospitalization rates. Which have gone down dramatically as well.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
6 Feb
on Dec 21, faced with projections of 15-30,000 new cases daily by Jan 24 and threats of impossible burden on ICUs, Ontario went into moderate lockdown. Whether due to this policy or otherwise, new cases remained under 3000 at Jan 12, declining to 2200 by Jan 24.
2/ nonetheless, on Jan 12, Science Table, Ontario science advisors took time out from worrying about microaggressions at University of Toronto to declare that policy failing. They presented new projections, this time projecting up to 45000 new cases by mid-Feb.
3/ As on Dec 21, they showed extrapolations at daily growth rates of 3%, 5% and 7%, even though there had been negligible increase in daily new cases since Dec 21. On right, I added Dec 21 projections plus 2 days of actuals not shown by Science Table.
Read 8 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
6 Feb
Chris Rentsch - not a climate scientist - has done an astounding calculation that, for some reason, Gavin Schmidt and climate "community" have failed to do. He's used absorption spectra over past 18 years to measure CO2 forcing.
2/ CO2 absorption spectra have long been used as evidence of existence of CO2 greenhouse effect, but measuring change in CO2 absorption spectra over time and on a global basis is a very non-trivial calculation. Rentsch has done it.
3/ even if there were no immediate implications for the overall debate, this would be an important and praiseworthy accomplishment. If the calculation showed that things were "worse than we thought", Rentsch would almost certainly been feted by scientific societies.
Read 5 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
6 Feb
it's now 14 days since Ontario received any COVID vaccines from feckless Trudeau government. Nearly all vaccines in this period have been 2nd doses. So NO NEW vaccinations are taking place.
yesterday, CCODWG reported that Ontario got 26325 vaccines on Feb 4 - the only delivery in past 16 days. These will presumably be used for 2nd doses. New vaccinations are at standstill for more than 2 weeks. github.com/ccodwg/Covid19…
one of the contributing factors to Canadian vaccine drought is that Canadian bureaucrats, none of whom have lost a day's pay, haven't approved the AstraZeneca vaccine which is being widely used in UK (and where we made large advance purchase.)

ctvnews.ca/politics/once-…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
3 Feb
in all my life, I've never seen a Globe and Mail front page like this. Vaccine deliveries to Canada have collapsed. Provinces have set up distribution but have NOTHING to distribute. Total fiasco.
2/ federal government's information page on vaccination to date and future deliveries hasn't been updated in two weeks. canada.ca/en/public-heal…
3/ Canada dependent on vaccines from EU, which were cut to zero for us (but no one else). EU instituted export controls, so Trudeau's ostentatious rollout plans are now in dust.
Read 17 tweets

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