The Paris Agreement asked IPCC do to a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C. This was done in the Paris Agreement "decision" text. This was why there was a 1.5°C report (interestingly not a "well below 2°C" report)
Many people now think the Paris Agreement has a hard target of 1.5°C, because they confuse UNFCCC & IPCC (?). Perhaps this was a clever intention?
The IPCC SR15 is not the Paris Agreement nor a report about the Paris Agreement. It is a report about 1.5°C, one element of Paris.
Similar on net-zero. Paris is about a "balance" 2050-2100 in *GHGs*, SR15 wrote “net zero CO₂ emissions” by 2050 for 1.5°C.
Somehow, the Paris Agreement has become net-zero GHG by 2050. Good for climate, bad for facts...
People that don’t understand these nuances are not over the detail, which probably means there is more talk than action. And this is why capitalism is struggling with the language of climate...
Here is a Kaya based projection we did 7 years ago. If a country continues along historical trends, the method is ok. If the country changes trends, the method is useless. See China. We were way out.
Though, for the EU, we will much better than the other study..
2. Why not put praise on the earlier Paris Agreement, which has a legal form & is the text countries agree to adhere too?
🤔 Perhaps many just do not know about the Paris Agreement (or was it Accord?), or confuse IPCC SR15 and Paris?
3. Scientists have been on net-zero for years. So have policy makers. The Paris Agreement did not happen in a vacuum, nor IPCC SR15, it built on the work over years, even decades.
IPCC SR15 is an assessment of the literature, not new science. Or is it?
“It’s revealing that a lot of financial institutions are thinking about...But they aren’t being exposed to climate scientists who can make sure they get the details right.” @bencaldecott
I agree, but does missing details mean we are at talk & not action? @Oliver_Geden
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I coincidentally came across this: "confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero GHG emissions" from @JoeriRogelj
THREAD: Climate risks & scenarios
[based on a presentation]
Financial institutions are asked to assess climate risk “…, taking into consideration different climate-related scenarios, including a 2°C or lower scenario.”
So, which scenario(s) do they use?
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2. It depends on the risk!
Easiest to frame around where we are heading (black line - approximate)
Climate risk: We have risk already, but we are concerned about it getting worse
Transition risk: We are mitigating, but policy, technology, society might make that happen faster
3. There is likely a drop in emissions from COVID of ~7%, but the IEA (& others) expect a rebound. Most analysts think emissions will be flat(ish) in the next decade.
The goal is to get to net-zero CO₂ emissions. When? Short answer: the earlier the better...
Oslo had a plan that was distributed across sectors. It is fair to argue that some things were out of their control (CCS at Klemetsrud), but not all things.
There was meant to be a 40% reduction in transport, for example, with many local measures.
Here is how transport emissions were meant to go down. Perhaps Oslo did well on the collective transport, but how was progress across other transport sub-sectors?