Fossil CO₂ emissions are likely to remain flat through 2100 leading to ~2.8°C warming if countries continue historical CO₂/GDP trends.
If countries meet emission pledges & continue reductions, then ~2.3°C.
Not RCP8.5, nor RCP1.9 or RCP2.6...
nature.com/articles/s4324…
If countries meet emission pledges & continue reductions, then ~2.3°C.
Not RCP8.5, nor RCP1.9 or RCP2.6...
nature.com/articles/s4324…
Though, note that these sorts of methods are very sensitive to assumptions (played with this before).
They had a similar study a few years back, some thoughts here
medium.com/@Peters_Glen/w…
And here is how the method performed...
They had a similar study a few years back, some thoughts here
medium.com/@Peters_Glen/w…
And here is how the method performed...
https://twitter.com/JoeriRogelj/status/1360020090989780993
Here is a Kaya based projection we did 7 years ago. If a country continues along historical trends, the method is ok. If the country changes trends, the method is useless. See China. We were way out.
Though, for the EU, we will much better than the other study..
Though, for the EU, we will much better than the other study..
These methods sort of depend on the errors in each country averaging. They tell you something, not everything. It will explain, eg, what it takes to follow RCP8.5 emissions (very hard).
So, take results with appropriate grain of salt (as for 𝒂𝒍𝒍 scenarios and projections).
So, take results with appropriate grain of salt (as for 𝒂𝒍𝒍 scenarios and projections).
Forgot to add the link to our paper: nature.com/articles/ngeo2…
(We have also played with Kaya projections a bit recently, running out to 2100, & comparing with IAMs. Very sensitive to assumptions on CO2/GDP)
(We have also played with Kaya projections a bit recently, running out to 2100, & comparing with IAMs. Very sensitive to assumptions on CO2/GDP)
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