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Simon Wardley

12 Feb, 15 tweets, 2 min read

X : What are the most profound technologies that are appearing today?
Me : Hmmm. The most profound technologies in terms of impact today are not appearing today, they appeared quite some time ago. What's happening is they are industrialising today.

X : Can you unpack that?
Me : Ok. Let us take machine learning, open access (to data, to code), collaboration tools (from reddit to twitter), virtual interfaction (from video conferencing to virtual worlds) then none of this stuff is "new" but ...

... all of this stuff is industrialising, becoming common services and part of our core infrastructure with this process accelerated by the isolation economy caused by covid ...

... this is leading to new practices, suddenly we have swarms (or murmurations) of retail investors with intent or masks4all challenging medical orthodoxy or telemedicine and discovery of our poor understanding of human baselines or ... it's a long long list ...

X : How long a list?
Me : Really? Ok, well, I do hope you're sitting comfortably. Currently the areas we seem (as a society) to be changing in are :-
1. SWARMING (of people and machines)
2. DISTRIBUTED AND INDIRECT LEARNING
3. DISTRIBUTION OF PROVISION (not power but provision)

4. ACCEPTANCE OF STANDARDS (identification and adoption of)
5. INCENTIVES & FUNDING MODELS (worth based / outcome based models)
6. FOCUS ON INTENT (long term goals)
7. MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRAINTS (including enabling constraints)
8. FOCUS ON PRINCIPLES (over beliefs)

9. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
10. IMMERSION
11. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
12. SUSTAINABILITY (not just tickboxes in a CSR)
13. REUSABILITY

14. MANAGING INERTIA (models for identifying and managing)
15. RESILIENCE (both engineering and ecological)
16. MOBILISATION (of people and resources)
17. MANIPULATION (of perceptions and defense against)
18. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

19. AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE
20. REDUCTION OF WASTE
21. RADICALISATION (beyond PR)
22. PROTECTIONISM (including conservation)
23. CORPORATE SHARING (including models for using open source)
24. ADAPTATION (anticipation of change and reacting to)

25. PERCEPTION OF TRUST (creation and maintenance)
26. ETHICS
27. SECURITY (in a virtual world including defense against deep fakes)
28. SOFT POWER (application to a corporate setting)
29. AUTONOMOUS (people and machines)

30. SIMULATION (including digital twins)
31. BASELINES (re-evaluation and use of)
32. AUTOMATION (of processes, identification of such)
33. LOCATION
34. DIVERSITY (creating sustainable and resilient systems)

35. SAFETY (including psychological)
36. BIOLOGICAL MIMICRY (learning from nature)
37. LOGISTICS
38. EXPERIENTIAL MODELS (mechanisms of learning)
39. ASSET OPTIMISED BUSINESS MODELS

40. FORECASTING (and scenario planning)
41. AMORPHOUS BOUNDARIES (fluidity between systems)

... all of these areas, these meanings seem to be undergoing change.
X : Is that a lot or normal?

Me : In history, I haven't seen this sort of level of build up of change since the renaissance. So, yes ,,, I agree that something profound is happening but it's based upon pre-existing technology that is industrialising. It will lead to new technology and new practices.

X : What new technology? Will it be good or bad?
Me : No idea. I don't have a crystal ball.

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley

@swardley

13 Feb

X : Thoughts on digital transformation?
Me : I prefer half hearted digital catch-up.
X : Why?
Me : Be honest. It's a bunch of laggards discovering the internet and spending vast sums removing custom built stuff that was industrialised long ago in order to be more 2010.

X : That's a bit hard.
Me : Not really. You need to be honest otherwise you'll think you're doing something innovate or leading the field or ... you're playing catch up from a long long way behind, the goal is not to lead but at least to keep the front pack in sight.

Think of it more like, you're in a formula one race and your digital transformation is more replacing the horse and cart with a car. It's not a very good car, you're not going to be competing but at least it's a little bit less embarassing.

Read 7 tweets

Simon Wardley

@swardley

13 Feb

X : Have you played Outerworlds?
Me : No. I'm not much of a gamer but I have some rules.
X : Such as?
Me : I normally wait a couple of years after it's released and look at the modding community. If there is a vibrant and active community then I'll buy it, mod it and play.

... that's assuming it's an immersive (i.e. first person) environment. I don't play 3rd person games, I find them dull i.e. the whole Witcher series. Bored after 30 minutes. Best of the bunch are Fallout 4 and Skyrim SE with Skyrim SE ruling.

X : Cyberpunk?
Me : 2077? Too new which means too buggy, I'll wait for 18 months and see what the state is, how vibrant the modding community is and whether decent modding tools have been provided.
X : Is the modding community really that important?
Me : For me? Yes.

Read 6 tweets

Simon Wardley

@swardley

11 Feb

X : In 2007, you said that cloud was the future ...
Me : I think you'll find I said utility computing was the future, circa 2005, before EC2 even launched. Was there a point?

X : Yes, you said it would take 10-15 years.
Me : Correct. 10-15 years to become accepted as the new norm once the transition started. Given it started 2006, that's now. I think we can say that cloud is the new norm.

X : But what about enterprises that haven't adopted?
Me : I did say that even when it had become the new norm then it would take a further 20-25 years for the laggards to adopt. Are we talking hybrid?

Read 6 tweets

Simon Wardley

@swardley

11 Feb

X : Do you have a map for digital transformation?
Me : Like cloud + agile + spotify?
X : Yes
Me : No. Any transformation is going to be specific to the context (i.e. your business / industry) ... there is no generic map. There are universal principles i.e. the doctrine

X : How about a map of the doctrine?
Me : Yes, that's how the phases are built. Some principles come before others. But these are models of thought, the principles need to be applied to your context.

X : How so?
Me : Focus on user needs means "are you thinking about user needs"? Your user needs (and their wants) maybe different from mine. The key is to think about them.

Read 7 tweets

Simon Wardley

@swardley

10 Feb

X : Do you miss meeting people in our new virtual world?
Me : I meet more people than ever before.
X : No, I mean one to one.
Me : Hmmm ... car rides, crap class travel, jetlag, filling out expense forms, second rate hotels, waits in lounges and not seeing family?

... I've not had to fill out a single request for travel or expense form in ages. I have zero intention of ever doing that again. Despite the horror of the pandemic, the lockdown has shown me a better way of life. The chances of me travelling or going to an office are zero.

Today, I have been to India, Japan, US, Australia, Canada, Russia, UK and France without removing the slippers, without a single form filled in and had time to chop some logs, bake some bread and play chess with the wee lad. The past world was mad.

Read 24 tweets

Simon Wardley

@swardley

10 Feb

When it comes to diversity, I am not convinced we have a "pipeline" problem. Instead I am far more convinced that we have inclusion and retention problems. I can't help but suspect the "pipeline" argument seems to be used as an excuse for not tackling the real issues ...

... it seems remarkably convenient for the existing structures that the argument for a lack of women in senior tech positions is to blame women for the "lack of women wanting to be engineers" ... I personally think the pipeline argument is mostly nonsense used to hide the ...

... issue that women tend to leave the IT industry because it's frankly sexist, not inclusive and the effort does not seem to be put into redressing this inbalance beyond tickbox exercises on characteristics.

Read 11 tweets

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