Prof Profile picture
14 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Cases are dropping faster than they ever have since the beginning of the pandemic, currently at a rate of around 3.5% per day.

In addition, the current drop is the longest consistent decline since the beginning.

But, the variant... (1/5)
It has been almost two months since Slavitt said we actually had the variant spreading but we were not testing for it. Almost four weeks since Topol said 4th surge was coming.

If this new variant is actually this big of a deal, I think we would have seen it by now. (2/5)
This chart shows the smoothened curve of % change in moving average (MA). Anytime it is 0+, it means MA of cases is increasing, and below zero means decreasing. The bigger the value, the faster the change.

MA is dropping since early January at an accelerating pace. (3/5)
Another insight: Even though MA mostly increased between mid-September and mid-January, the rate of increase has actually been slowing down since early November, except for two brief periods (orange rectangles - likely holiday testing bumps). (4/5)
This chart will give us the earliest signal of a possible 4th wave, so I will keep watching. However, I am currently not seeing any signs of a more infectious variant in this data. (5/5)

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More from @covidtweets

14 Feb
Watch the pathetic responses (actually lack thereof) by @CDCDirector to the very good questions by @jaketapper

It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
She says when there are cases in school:

1. It is from the community,
2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,

So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.

Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
There has been a lot of stupidity in the past year. Most were because of fear. This is different.

This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
Read 7 tweets
7 Feb
Epidemiologists trying to understand why cases are falling.

Exhibits in the following tweets...
Read 17 tweets
6 Feb
A while back I tweeted that the only model that would explain observed pandemic curves was the virus going airborne under certain weather conditions.

I also tweeted that I believed the majority of transmission was likely via air. (1/x)
Now a study examining fluid dynamics of virus-carrying droplets finds exactly that. There are specific favorable temp/humidity conditions.

Furthermore, it applies the weather variables and predicts second waves with much better accuracy than most other models. (2/x)
"The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are more likely a natural phenomenon that is directly related to the weather seasonality during a pandemic evolution. The above puts in question large scale, strict lockdowns..." (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
5 Jan
Most people opposing lockdowns are not "pandemic deniers".

We are "COVID monomania" deniers.

This is not the first time a pandemic is happening. This is the first time we are responding like this.

Everything we do are knee-jerk reactions. Nothing is based in science. (1/x)
We rush to close schools, without considering the possibility that it might actually increase transmission via kids mixing in different groups, or cause transmission to vulnerable grandparents.

We keep the schools closed despite the massive harm it will cause on our kids. (2/x)
We mandate masks almost as a talisman, without considering the possibility that they may increase aerosol transmission or give people a false sense of safety.

We keep the mandates in place despite zero evidence they are making a difference. (3/x)

Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 20
Reflections on 2020...

Whoever you ask, regardless of their views on lockdowns, masks, etc., they will say our response to COVID was a disaster.

How did we manage to get this much wrong?

My few cents: (1/x)
Reason #1: Social media/media. After (likely staged) scenes from China, misinformation resulted in the fear quickly taking over.

When fear is prevalent, most people cannot reason. Quickly, people began turning to knee-jerk reactions. (2/x)

Reason #2: The risk of severe illness is not equally distributed. Same for lockdowns, which also affect people differently.

The problem is, there is not a big overlap between those with the short end of the stick from COVID vs. lockdowns. (3/x)

Read 14 tweets
21 Dec 20
Something interesting is happening in Europe: Population centers along the same latitude and region are seeing a rise starting exactly around December 3rd.

Any idea why? Anything these countries share aside from latitude? (1/x)
If it is the more infectious variant, as the UK claims, this would mean the variant is already widespread in those other countries as well.

However, I would not expect this to be the case, since the rise would be staggered rather than in concert if that were true. (2/x)
It cannot be human behavior either, as we have seen numerous times by now. The variance in human behavior is too big to cause such orchestrated moves, especially across borders.

Has there been any significant shift in weather in that area around after mid-November? (3/3)
Read 5 tweets

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