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7 Feb, 17 tweets, 4 min read
Epidemiologists trying to understand why cases are falling.

Exhibits in the following tweets...
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 3:
Exhibit 4:
When increasing: " No, it is not testing, percent positive is increasing too!"

When decreasing: " Testing has decreased because we agree focusing on vaccines."
Exhibit 5:
Not an epidemiologist, but...
Exhibit 6:
Not an epidemiologist, but...
Exhibit 7:
Exhibit 8:
Come on, you are so close!
Exhibit 9:
Exhibit 10:
Exhibit 11: This one still has some hope to cling to:
Exhibit 12:
Exhibit 13:
Not an epidemiologist, but...
Exhibit 14:
Good thing you were late...
Exhibit 15:
Exhibit 16:

• • •

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More from @covidtweets

Prof Profile picture
6 Feb
A while back I tweeted that the only model that would explain observed pandemic curves was the virus going airborne under certain weather conditions.

I also tweeted that I believed the majority of transmission was likely via air. (1/x)
Now a study examining fluid dynamics of virus-carrying droplets finds exactly that. There are specific favorable temp/humidity conditions.

Furthermore, it applies the weather variables and predicts second waves with much better accuracy than most other models. (2/x)
"The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are more likely a natural phenomenon that is directly related to the weather seasonality during a pandemic evolution. The above puts in question large scale, strict lockdowns..." (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
Prof Profile picture
5 Jan
Most people opposing lockdowns are not "pandemic deniers".

We are "COVID monomania" deniers.

This is not the first time a pandemic is happening. This is the first time we are responding like this.

Everything we do are knee-jerk reactions. Nothing is based in science. (1/x)
We rush to close schools, without considering the possibility that it might actually increase transmission via kids mixing in different groups, or cause transmission to vulnerable grandparents.

We keep the schools closed despite the massive harm it will cause on our kids. (2/x)
We mandate masks almost as a talisman, without considering the possibility that they may increase aerosol transmission or give people a false sense of safety.

We keep the mandates in place despite zero evidence they are making a difference. (3/x)

Read 6 tweets
Prof Profile picture
31 Dec 20
Reflections on 2020...

Whoever you ask, regardless of their views on lockdowns, masks, etc., they will say our response to COVID was a disaster.

How did we manage to get this much wrong?

My few cents: (1/x)
Reason #1: Social media/media. After (likely staged) scenes from China, misinformation resulted in the fear quickly taking over.

When fear is prevalent, most people cannot reason. Quickly, people began turning to knee-jerk reactions. (2/x)

Reason #2: The risk of severe illness is not equally distributed. Same for lockdowns, which also affect people differently.

The problem is, there is not a big overlap between those with the short end of the stick from COVID vs. lockdowns. (3/x)

Read 14 tweets
Prof Profile picture
21 Dec 20
Something interesting is happening in Europe: Population centers along the same latitude and region are seeing a rise starting exactly around December 3rd.

Any idea why? Anything these countries share aside from latitude? (1/x)
If it is the more infectious variant, as the UK claims, this would mean the variant is already widespread in those other countries as well.

However, I would not expect this to be the case, since the rise would be staggered rather than in concert if that were true. (2/x)
It cannot be human behavior either, as we have seen numerous times by now. The variance in human behavior is too big to cause such orchestrated moves, especially across borders.

Has there been any significant shift in weather in that area around after mid-November? (3/3)
Read 5 tweets
Prof Profile picture
20 Dec 20
I have been told a few times that I am biased against current restrictions and it is affecting my ability to see all sides of the debate.

I appreciate being challenged to evaluate my reasoning, and I appreciate the people who do this.

I agree I am biased. Here is why. (1/x)
I believe in the need for evidence-based practices.

I also believe that policies such as business closures or restrictions on life should be held to a very high standard of evidence, given all the harms that they do.

In the beginning, we did not know enough. Not anymore. (2/x)
Imagine knowing in March that after months of restrictions in CA and very lax rules in FL, this is what we would see.

Can you imagine anyone saying back then "Yeah, we should lockdown hard"?

Not a single person would support business closures. (3/x) ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Prof Profile picture
17 Dec 20
I believe that if we had spent 1% of the money we are burning on testing to supply everyone over 60 with enough N95s, and let the life to go on as normal, we would have max. 10% of the current mortality.

But we keep insisting on the wrong mode of transmission. (1/x)
We operate under a droplet model and do the things that should work, like masks, distance, contact tracing. None of those things work - as seen repeatedly since October.

Without any apparent change in human behavior, cases are skyrocketing. (2/x)
I wouldn't be surprised if we one day discover that this virus, like pollens, don't need droplets of any size (not even aerosols) to float in the air, at right temperatures/humidity. Like mold, it stays in the air, and infects when they find the right host environment. (3/x)
Read 10 tweets

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