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David Henig Profile picture
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14 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Sounds reasonable but as ever probe a little further and the problems easily emerge - why is the UK so well placed to trade with countries a long way away? In what? How will Free Trade Agreements help? How will trade develop?

No answers.
More likely if you lose opportunities in your nearby markets the initial effect will be to lose some global trade as well. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
And as @NickCohen4 points out with a very small walkon role from me, a lot of the global trade talk at the moment has no actual content. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Being globally competitive is not as easy as Ministers with no meaningful commercial experience may suggest.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
16 Feb
To be honest the pressure to negotiate a better EU deal - on Northern Ireland, SPS checks, musicians - has come quicker than I thought. Quite right though, it was a poor deal for the UK's trade interests. politicshome.com/thehouse/artic…
But it is also why the EU issues isn't going away from UK politics any time soon. Because EU trade links are so obviously much more important than any other country. Not many artists are going to tour Asia. A lot want to tour Europe. And the same in so many other fields.
See also - why the majority of countries in the world have their deepest trade agreements with neighbours, including customs unions and single markets. Because it is both common sense and economically proven that you can trade more with neighbours.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Feb
Well this is entirely as I predicted. Was amazed that those coming into the new USA administration appeared to expect the world to fall in line, something that hasn't really happened since the 1990s. And for the UK that is a sort of opportunity. But very complex politics.
I see very little sign from the US that their foreign policy thinking is coping with a tri-polar world in which the EU won't just follow. Actually neither will the UK, but we may flatter better. Won't be fully comfortable for us, Japan, other mid-size 'western allies'.
Trade is a particularly good example of US-UK-EU dilemmas. A US trade deal with the UK strengthens US against EU in world trade terms, but that is likely to be a problem for the US in hoping for EU support against China, and UK-EU relations to strengthen. Can't have it all...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Feb
Think this could usefully be translated. The first two, particularly the second, are clear EU asks. We have a deal, it needs implementing. The third is a nod to UK asks - "workable solutions". Fourth is a demand from the ground, need for a common understanding. Fifth - the means.
Sense that the Northern Ireland protocol is a technical compromise solution without a conceptual underpinning, thus being vulnerable to accidental and wilful misunderstanding. Urgent need for that narrative to accompany measures, in particular as barriers will increase.
Because every time the EU implements a changed or new goods regulation and the UK does not (and vice versa) that will add to GB-Northern Ireland trade barriers. Mechanisms can be eased, but they won't be removed, and the protocol is here to stay in the absence of alternatives.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Feb
The conundrum is... if the EU grant easements while the UK suggest the protocol is invalid then it never ends. So the EU need the UK to fully accept the overall protocol which includes checks. But the PM and others in the UK won't admit that.

In theory solvable, in practice...
The EU can't get off its high horse with regard to Northern Ireland while the UK government believe the threat to the protocol it made for three months was less serious than the threat the EU made for three hours. All changes if the UK government adapt, but of course DUP...
The UK government hostility towards the EU over Northern Ireland, the Ambassador's status, etc is all fine if we have a good negotiating position e.g. we could walk away. But in fact it turns out we won't. Therefore we need to change tack, and then persuade the EU.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Feb
What is happening in UK trade post-Brexit (EU and global) is what I always feared - a government not getting a handle on the day-to-day issues that cost business and the country, preferring instead the jet-setting photo opportunity and talk of future deals.ft.com/content/3dad4e…
Take the share trading news. Is it on its own a significant loss - no. But it is part of a pattern, the UK isn't getting financial services equivalence from the EU the way things are going, doesn't know what to do about it, activity goes to EU.
We have a @britishchambers survey of firms experience trading with the EU today. As you'd expect, a lot of issues. Will they be terminal to all business - again no. But some will, and some business will go to the EU. There's a pattern here. britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/02/b…
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Feb
Perhaps though nobody thought the EU was soft. For UK reasons include lack of trust, proximity, size, and not to encourage others.

All of which is largely irrelevant to the main question, what are we going to do about it? Because until we find leverage, they can do as they will.
The current government and Brexit partisans have no coherent answer on how to address EU action that harms the UK. They alternately talk tough, say we're taking our ball elsewhere, or whimper. There is no sense of UK agency like priorities or influencing, and little consistency.
And this is also the problem with a government that doesn't open itself to scrutiny and an opposition that doesn't want to push the issue too far. Who is pointing out the failures of the UK's negotiating strategy with the EU, and what can be done about them?
Read 5 tweets

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