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David Henig Profile picture
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16 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
To be honest the pressure to negotiate a better EU deal - on Northern Ireland, SPS checks, musicians - has come quicker than I thought. Quite right though, it was a poor deal for the UK's trade interests. politicshome.com/thehouse/artic…
But it is also why the EU issues isn't going away from UK politics any time soon. Because EU trade links are so obviously much more important than any other country. Not many artists are going to tour Asia. A lot want to tour Europe. And the same in so many other fields.
See also - why the majority of countries in the world have their deepest trade agreements with neighbours, including customs unions and single markets. Because it is both common sense and economically proven that you can trade more with neighbours.
Governments frequently make decisions putting sovereignty ahead of trade. But then when whatever fuss it was dies down seek to quietly improve trade relations recognising that ultimately this makes more sense. Will happen in the UK too. Just not sure of timescale.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
18 Feb
Cuts right to the heart of possibly the most significant Brexit myth in the Conservative Party, that the EU is a uniquely heavy regulator holding back business.

When actually regulation, whether of bananas or buildings, is a developed country norm, including the US.
The Brussels regulatory myth also sits heavily on one former journalist. Boris Johnson was mocking EU regulations in the late 90s but nobody was bothering to check whether the rest of the world were also regulating. They were. Of course there were mistakes. But universal action.
We tend to forget that the growth of regulations in the 1980s and particularly 90s was largely a centre-right initiative, a corollary to privatisation. So the state would no longer be extensively involved in providing services, but would regulate instead.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Feb
So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.
The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.
So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Feb
The phrase "high quality free trade agreement" seems like "free trade" one for which the UK government has its own meaning. In both cases they mean not free trade.
Disagree with this though. The obvious problems with the EU deal will at some stage be exploited by a leader more skilled than Starmer (while still talking tough). It might take time, but such a shallow relationship is not the global norm.
As I've said before my view is that there will be quiet movements towards closer EU relations particularly in terms of regulations - because that is economically beneficial and virtually cost free. Once you realise that non-tariff barriers are a real problem.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Feb
Sounds reasonable but as ever probe a little further and the problems easily emerge - why is the UK so well placed to trade with countries a long way away? In what? How will Free Trade Agreements help? How will trade develop?

No answers.
More likely if you lose opportunities in your nearby markets the initial effect will be to lose some global trade as well. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
And as @NickCohen4 points out with a very small walkon role from me, a lot of the global trade talk at the moment has no actual content. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Feb
Well this is entirely as I predicted. Was amazed that those coming into the new USA administration appeared to expect the world to fall in line, something that hasn't really happened since the 1990s. And for the UK that is a sort of opportunity. But very complex politics.
I see very little sign from the US that their foreign policy thinking is coping with a tri-polar world in which the EU won't just follow. Actually neither will the UK, but we may flatter better. Won't be fully comfortable for us, Japan, other mid-size 'western allies'.
Trade is a particularly good example of US-UK-EU dilemmas. A US trade deal with the UK strengthens US against EU in world trade terms, but that is likely to be a problem for the US in hoping for EU support against China, and UK-EU relations to strengthen. Can't have it all...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Feb
Think this could usefully be translated. The first two, particularly the second, are clear EU asks. We have a deal, it needs implementing. The third is a nod to UK asks - "workable solutions". Fourth is a demand from the ground, need for a common understanding. Fifth - the means.
Sense that the Northern Ireland protocol is a technical compromise solution without a conceptual underpinning, thus being vulnerable to accidental and wilful misunderstanding. Urgent need for that narrative to accompany measures, in particular as barriers will increase.
Because every time the EU implements a changed or new goods regulation and the UK does not (and vice versa) that will add to GB-Northern Ireland trade barriers. Mechanisms can be eased, but they won't be removed, and the protocol is here to stay in the absence of alternatives.
Read 4 tweets

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