Performance benchmarking for today's Celtic at St Johnstone game. Non-penalty xG had avg 2.23 vs 0.72 on 17.70 shots in Perth. Celticnhave outperformed that avg xG by averaging 3 goals over the 9 league games since the start of the 2015-2016 season.
St. Johnstone are probably
the oddest statistically team in the league this season, as they are currently 3rd in xG differential overall after Rangers and Celtic, and have conceded about the same amountof non-penalty xG per 90 minutes as Celtic.
However, their finishing & keeper play have been very poor.
They've scored just 24 non-penalty goals vs over 34 in npxG and conceded 34 non-penalty goals vs just 24 in npxG. That is a massive 20 goal swing overall and explains why they are 8th in the real table instead of 3rd.
Clark has been particularly poor this season overall, avg
allowing about 30% more goals than post-shot xG against him would suggest.
St Johnstone have the highest xG p90 from set plays in the league, so an obvious threat for Celtic. They have also been relatively proficient in creating xG off pessing in opponents' half.
Given yet another typically odd selection for Celtic, this may be an even more challenging game in midfield. Let's hope the gap in xG disparities for St Johnstone are structural and/or persist for at least 1 more game.
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I have been thinking about how to go about doing this review and have settled on doing it in segments. My goal is to lay out an analytical framework for measuring historical performance for Celtic in order to offer context for making performance assessments. This first segment
will lay out the framework and why I am doing this. I decided to look into this as an extension of the analysis I started doing on the recent Celtic seasons about 18 months ago. Like when I began 18 months ago, I didn't have a good sense of what an analysis would yield.
Let me also state that I do not presume to "know" anything. I am putting forth my analysis using the tools I have found available. I've tried my best to source accurate data but there will be some estimations.
I am sharing this because I was going to do it for my own curiousity
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic at St Johnstone game. Had a long morning of driving today so a bit late posting. Non-penalty xG was 1.94 vs 0.34 on 10 vs 5 shots. That differential of 1.60 was very close to the avg I shared ahead of the game- 1.51
So I would characterize the overall output as fine. Similar to the St Mirren game, the dispersion of performance levels in the game was skewed late, as had 0.94 xG before Edouard's 1st goal, with 0.40 of that coming on the Duffy chance off the Turnbull free kick delivery.
Celtic also won just 42.32% of duels overall- poorly placed/sloppy passing was widespread. Christie offered 2 moments of excellence which enabled the same from Edouard- other than Edouard's 1st half cross, that was pretty much the entirety of Celtic's attack.
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Rangers game. Non-penalty xG was 0.14 vs 1.26. To address one of the hot topics coming out of the game, next tweet shows other games with low number of shots on target since Deila's last season-only gladbach @ home
A reminder that event-based xG models are just one of many analytical tools. For example, Wyscout's assigned very low probability to Moi's chance. As has been the case this season generally, we lacked attacking output from midfield and the two "strikers."
Understanding why xG was low on Moi's shot is important- he struck the ball with his right foot- from that position and relative to McGregor and the last defender is probably not a shot that goes in...almost ever. Had he used his left foot the xG would likely have been higher.
Performance benchmarking in advance of tomorrow's big game: first some ranking models. 538's SPI currently has Celtic at 52 and Rangers at 99, which places them just behind Sporting and Braga for some context. The Elo system I monitor has Celtic at 37 and Rangers up to 51.
The derby games the past two seasons have been very tight both with regards to goals and underlying performance metrics. Back to Wyscout data today to go back to 16/17 season, and we can see the shift in relative derby performances pre and post Gerrard/Beale arrival.
The relative wage budget went from about 15% in 16/17 of Celtic to over 70%, which has assuredly been a huge factor. Notable development in last 3 derbies was the extreme lopsidedness of Celtic's attack in 4-2-3-1 in the three games. That had not been an issue under Rodgers.
Warning- this is a nerdy thread on long range shots and why I worry about Celtic's shooting. I hear repeatedly that Christie is a good shooter so I thought I would examine his record from shots outside the box and the penalty arc. I reviewed 17-18 at Aberdeen & 18-19/19-20.
Christie had 274 non-penalty shots over that time with 147 outside the area. He had about 56% of his shots outside the area under McInnes and last season under Lennon, while 48% in the hybrid season under Rodgers/Lennon in 18-19. He scored 8 goals on aggregate of 4.62 xG...
on those 147 shots for avg xG per shot of about 0.03. One way to interpret that is that Christie is a "good shooter" because he has outperformed his xG. Of the 147 shots, 20% were on target, 43% were wide, 32% blocked, and 5% scored.
Time for the good, the bad, and the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Ferencvaros game. Wyscout had the game at 1.72-0.31 xG with 25 vs 7 shots, 8 vs 3 on target, and pretty much 70-30% possession. I would say that the main good is that despite Lennon's post-game comments, players
appear to have played hard overall. I think players generally seemed to try to make the best of flawed selection and tactics. I am not going to slaughter players who are not good enough at no fault of their own, or playing out of position for the umpteenth time.
Lots of bad, so I will just highlight a couple and they will be familiar. Been harping on midfield structure, lack of creativity, and transitions being problems, with stepping up to better quality opponents likely to exacerbate. Here is typical picture of midfield issue.