Thread by @jucojames

I have been thinking about how to go about doing this review and have settled on doing it in segments. My goal is to lay out an analytical framework for measuring historical performance for Celtic in order to offer context for making performance assessments. This first segment

will lay out the framework and why I am doing this. I decided to look into this as an extension of the analysis I started doing on the recent Celtic seasons about 18 months ago. Like when I began 18 months ago, I didn't have a good sense of what an analysis would yield.

Let me also state that I do not presume to "know" anything. I am putting forth my analysis using the tools I have found available. I've tried my best to source accurate data but there will be some estimations.

I am sharing this because I was going to do it for my own curiousity

anyway and hope that my conclusions may be of interest to someone in a position of power to make some sort of positive difference. Obviously, my hope on that front failed miserably as it related to this season.

A simple way to communicate this performance model is to think of it

in 3 parts:

Wage Bill
Player Trading
Player Utilization

I have a strong sense that the people running Celtic do not actually understand what drives the performance of football clubs. That probably sounds arrogant, but I base this assessment on the confluence of decisions

made along with statements from leaderships at the club and those around them.

Wage Bill- this is the big one. There is a robust body of research on this topic dating back at least 30 years, with the 2007-2020 period including significant research contributions by people like

Bernd Frick. I am cheap so haven't paid to read all of the papers, but read some & done my own simple regression analysis across sample of leagues using wage bills, expected goal differential, expected points, etc, & there does seem to be a relatively stable contribution for wage

bills with a range between 75%-85%. There is normal variance season to season but also relative to the wage distribution in leagues. For example-the SPFL has a vastly different distribution from the EPL.

I start with this concept because it is foundational but also common sense.

For perspective, the 5,000-1 Leceister City team had a wage budget relative to Manchester City which was comparable to Aberdeen relative to Celtic. Outside of Rangers, there is no viable sporting challenge domestically for Celtic. Of course these factors are longer term- meaning

that anything can happen in single games or ties, but over a 38 game season, wage bill translates into a competitive advantage that is incredibly difficult to overcome when the disparity is 6+ to one.

This provides a simple first step in assessing the relative wage bills

of Celtic vs domestic competition historically. With the gap being so large vs other clubs, the obvious variable is the wage bill relative to Rangers.

I've cobbled together data dating back to 2002 for both- sourcing Rangers' data prior to liquidation required some research.

Price Waterhouse conducted a survey/report over many of those years I was able to find online. Celtic obviously have historical PLC public reports. The Global Salary Survey offered additional context starting in 2013-2014. I made educated guesses in my data for the 2 seasons

where I could not find specific amounts for Rangers, which were fiscal years 2005 and 2006.

After wage bills comes the next two, which including the quality of recruitment/trading, sports science, academy and player development, and 1st team coaching. Combined, they are

dwarfed by the importance of wage bill. A well run team the size of Aberdeen has little chance against a poorly run team of Celtic's size. I contend that this simple concept is at the root of how and why Celtic's leadership have misattributed the accomplishments of

the club, CEO, and current manager. As the data and analytics revolution has unfolded, player trading and utilization have made the "old" model uncompetitive. The idea that a single person can compete at player trading and utilization vs modern tools and expertise is

like saying a thoroughbred horse can compete with an Edsel. Even the best of past eras could not compete
today.

The next segment will begin to look at the historical record dating back to the O'Neill era and immediately preceding the current CEO's tenure. End.