Here’s the thing about bubbles: They always need more buyers to push the price higher.

The $GME bubble inflated initially as #wallstreetbets realized that with 140% short interest, $ could be made. Seeing others’ blood in the Street, HFs jumped in, further inflating the bubble.
2/ At $325, up from $20 two wks earlier w/ no chg in fundamentals, the $GME bubble was clear for all to see, but shorts needed a catalyst. The catalyst came when RH slapped a limit on new purchases, which shorts correctly perceived would keep new buyers out, and the bubble burst. Image
3/ Now there’s #BTC approaching $50K, up from $10K four months ago, w/ no change in fundamentals. As with $GME initially, there’s no catalyst to stop buyers from entering the #BTC bubble. Once Treasury Secretary Yellen proposes new regs, the #BTC bubble will burst just like $GME. Image
4/ Those who get hurt as #BTC collapses will certainly blame Secy Yellen in the same way those who got burned gambling on $GME blamed RH for imposing new restrictions. Both bubbles were destined to break, and all bubbles ultimately burst when there are no more fools to entice.

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More from @garyblack00

9 Feb
As an analyst, you learn to look for inflection points. If a company you own and love suddenly struggles after blowing away estimates for several quarters, you owe it to clients to check your thesis. $TSLA has now posted several red flags in a month after 18 months of killing it.
1/ Missed FY’20 deliv guidance of 500K by 353 cars. If demand is greater than capacity, why couldn’t TSLA deliver 353 more cars? Perhaps Covid related delays caused customers to not take delivery of vehicles. My sense: $TSLA pulled out all stops to get to 500K but still missed.
2/ $TSLA 4Q Adj EPS of $.80 fell way short of $1.03 est, due to weak Auto GM% (20.7% ex-ZEV vs 24.0% exp). Mgmt blamed miss on one-time factors (Y ramp, supply chain shortages, pandemic inefficiencies, S/X refresh), but all those factors (now MIC Y ramp) are continuing into 1Q.
Read 7 tweets
6 Feb
Slow news day. Everyone gearing up for Super Bowl Sunday and Trump impeachment trial starting Tuesday. The latter will be highly entertaining for an irrelevant outcome (removal from office) that is likely to be inconclusive (won’t get 2/3 Senate to convict). $tsla
As a Republican, I hope Trump is convicted so he can never run for public office again as an Independent and siphon off votes from the Republican Party. So a conviction is good for Rs. Irrelevant means the trial won’t impact markets either way. But it will be very entertaining.
My point on the impeachment trial: It’s irrelevant because 1/ The market doesn’t care about the outcome; 2/ They won’t get the 67 votes needed to impeach because the Senators have to stand up and announce their votes. If it was a blind vote, yes, but that’s not how it’s done.
Read 4 tweets
31 Jan
Why wouldn’t $GME execs take advantage of the $300/sh stock price to raise capital to transform their business? A $2B cap raise on $22B mkt cap (10%) would dwarf the entire $1.4B market cap at which $GME was trading 3 weeks ago. The obvious buyer? Some of the 58M shares short.
2/ Perhaps Ryan Cohen and his fellow new board members don’t want to ease the squeeze. If $GME short int fell below 100%, Reddit traders may go elsewhere. Or they don’t want to put out an S-1 that shows how bad the $GME business really is. Sunlight can be a bad disinfectant.
3/ My view: A secondary combined with new action by Treasury, SEC, or the brokers to squash $GME speculation will push GME back to $20/share. At a 50% borrow (12.5% for 3 mos), new shorts will take up the battle, much like the second wave of an infantry, and $GME will collapse.
Read 4 tweets
31 Jan
Lost in the entire discussion about banning shorts is this: What do clients want?

1/ Over the past 20 yrs, long/short equity funds delivered about the same absolute return as long only funds (5.1% vs 4.9% CAGR) with just under 60% of the risk (10.3% vs 17.6%). $TSLA $GME
2/ As one would expect, long only funds do better in bull markets, and long/short better in bear markets. The appeal of long/short is they protect clients on the downside (because they short), and thus deliver better overall risk-adjusted returns, the metric clients prize most.
3/ According to Morningstar, clients pay 3x as much for long/short equity funds (1.9%) as for long only equity funds (0.57%), given the expected risk-adjusted return benefits. Growth in long/short equity assets has far outpaced growth in long only equity assets the past 20 years.
Read 4 tweets
31 Jan
Excerpts from the Washington Post $GME piece:

1/ “Until last week, the quintessentially absurd bubble was the Dutch tulip mania. In Holland in the 17th century, investors bid the price of simple tulip bulbs up to ridiculous heights. It was the purest of idiotic fantasies.”
2/ “Last week, a similar fantasy reared its head: the idea that GameStop, an ailing retailer whose shares had slumped from $57 to $4 since 2013, should suddenly trade at $350. The speculators have no evidence that this makes any sense: Indeed, they disdain evidence.”
3/ “GameStop’s price-to-earnings ratio is infinite, because the company earns nothing. Its prospects are grim, because it is mainly a brick-and-mortar vendor of video games, a product best sold digitally. But the speculators don’t care. They believe.”
Read 9 tweets
30 Jan
Investors asking what to do with $TSLA after it’s 10% fall post-earnings last week.

1/ Recall TSLA almost always falls after earnings as investors sell-the-news. After +25% YTD run-up, TSLA would likely have retreated after earnings regardless. S&P500 -3.3% last week as well.
2/ $TSLA 4Q missed ($.80 vs $1.03), largely due to weak auto GM % (20.7% vs 24.2% Street) worth $.22), and $100M extra int on early debt conversion offsetting $100M higher ZEV. Big question: Will auto GM issues be one-time, or continue with M3 pricing/Covid sourcing pressures?
3/ $TSLA ‘s cryptic 2021 vol guide is likely their way of warning 1Q vols will be light with S/X refresh, and buyers waiting for new EV tax credit. I am confident they make up vol shortfall in 2H once EV credit passes, S/X refresh complete, and Berlin opens, leveling EU pricing.
Read 4 tweets

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