As we talk about how to ensure a just & equitable transition to a net-zero emissions economy (see e.g. NASEM nap.edu/resource/25932…), I highly recommend @OPB's Timber Wars podcast, which documents a tumultous economic transition that shaped my home state opb.org/show/timberwar…
A transition to a net-zero emissions economy can drive a net increase of 0.5-1 million jobs by 2030 and 2-3 million by 2050, according to the @Princeton NET-ZERO AMERICA study, but that topline hides significant regional and local economic transformations & potential dislocations
I was too young to remember living through these days, but I grew up in the economic and physical landscape it left behind. This history is in my blood, in the names and historic economic centers of the places I grew up.
I was born in the 1980s and raised in Forest Grove, OR. I lived 1st years near a town called Timber, up in the Coast Range. My father first moved to the state to work for the Forest Service & I spent my weekends and summers hiking and camping in Oregon National Forests.
I think we can learn a lot from the history of the 'Timber Wars' in the late 1980s and the end of Oregon's timber-based economy, as we consider how best to help those people and communities who have fueled our economy for a century or more & ensure a just clean energy transition.
I'll tag in @resilientplaces here when she's up for it to share some of the great scholarship on this topic. See also the extensive discussion of key strategies to manage a just and equitable transition of energy-centered economies in @theNASEM report here nap.edu/resource/25932…

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More from @JesseJenkins

16 Feb
Morning. The #TexasFreeze continues & grid operator ERCOT is still reporting >31,000 MW of thermal generation capacity out as of 9AM CT. Down slightly from a peak of 34,000 MW reported yesterday afternoon (ercot.com/news/releases/…) but still >40% of thermal capacity in state! Image
Wind power is currently producing about 4,000 MW, or 2/3 of the ~6,000 MW that ERCOT was counting on wind to contribute during winter peaking events. Solar is coming online now and helping during daytime, exceeding the <300 MW it is counted on for in system planning. Image
Main story continues to be the failure of thermal power plants -- natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants -- which ERCOT counts on to be there when needed. They've failed. Of about 70,000 MW of thermal plants in ERCOT, ~25-30,000 MW have been out since Sunday night. Huge problem.
Read 17 tweets
15 Feb
Update: I've been digging into ERCOT's opaquely labeled Hourly Resource Outage Capacity data here. Current hour report below. Here's how to read it:

TotalResourceMW = Thermal Geneators (gas/coal/nuclear) out right now / forecasted for next hours

1/ Image
TotalIRRResourcesMW = portion of 'intermittent renewable resource' (IRR) capacity, aka wind & solar, that is not producing. This appears to be the total capacity of about 25.1 GW of wind + 3.8 GW solar minus current wind/solar output. This is NOT all forced outages (eg icing up)
ERCOT only counts on 6.1 GW of wind for winter peaking capacity and 269 MW of solar, so any number in the TotalIRRResourcesMW column < 22,531 means wind & solar are *overperforming* ERCOT planning expectations. So slight better than that at moment.
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
That is a HUGE amount of gas capacity offline, about 30% of total ERCOT capacity and ~half of the natural gas fleet, according to Dec 2020 Capacity Demand and Reserves report here: ercot.com/content/wcm/li…

Devastating for reliability.
If we look at Winter planning scenerio ERCOT was using for 2026/27 (table below), they were planning for a peak demand of 67,512 "based on normal weather." Demand last night (in 2021 not 2026/27!) was 69,150

30,000 MW of outages right now = 42% of demand! Image
Read 18 tweets
14 Feb
To folks observing rollercoaster electricity prices down in Texas, where polar temps are driving prices up to $9,000/MWh: this us how it's supposed to work. It may appear costly, but in PJM we pay $11-13/MWh all year for large reserve margins to avoid this. Which is more costly?
Now, a "capacity market" as in PJM, etc, is like buying insurance. Sometimes that insurance looks great in hindsight. But it's also very costly, and you pay for it every month. How much insurance do you really want? Well you (customer) don't get to pick. The system operator does.
An "energy only" market as in Texas is a little like rolling dice w/o insurance at system level, but customers can (in theory) choose how to hedge themselves, via contracts or backup gen/storage. And anyone with flexible demand has HUGE incentives to flex it. That can save big $.
Read 8 tweets
27 Jan
Happy #ClimateDay: FACT SHEET ➡️ "President Biden Takes Executive Actions to Tackle the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad, Create Jobs, and Restore Scientific Integrity Across Federal Government" whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The order "makes clear that both significant short-term global emission reductions and net zero global emissions by mid-century – or before – are required to avoid setting the world on a dangerous, potentially catastrophic, climate trajectory."
"The order clearly establishes climate considerations as an essential element of U.S. foreign policy and national security."
Read 42 tweets
27 Jan
@ramez @JustinHGillis @cody_a_hill @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @MLiebreich @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase How many days are you going to do it per year? What are you going to pay to fill the battery each time you cycle? Are you using your solar all the time? Why not size your storage to charge from the grid as well? A single cycle per day or two?
@ramez @JustinHGillis @cody_a_hill @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @MLiebreich @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase I get it that if you want to promise a simple transaction under long-term contract to deliver power every day @ the same hour, you can make this work. Maybe that's how your contracts work @cody_a_hill. But seems like both a lot of risk & lot of $ left on the table for such deals.
@ramez @JustinHGillis @cody_a_hill @chrisnelder @hausfath @KarstenCapion @AukeHoekstra @DrChrisClack @EmilDimanchev @robbieorvis @SimonMahan @electronecon @noahqk @IEA @DrSimEvans @MLiebreich @DetlefvanVuuren @nworbmot @TomRaftery @ChristianOnRE @solar_chase Storage is an asset, independent of the solar, and can do a lot of stuff besides shift solar every day by four hours and discharge over four hours or whatever. And the cost of doing so is a lot more variable and context dependent than a $/kWh "adder" tells you.
Read 5 tweets

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