SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from @my_helix is here: github.com/myhelix/helix-…

Stats on
>300,000 positives from last 4 months
2,503 sequences (1/3 SGTF, 2/3 random non-SGTF)

🧵on vars of concerns & interest in 7 states

>2% of positives are B.1.1.7 in: CA, FL, GA, PA & TX
@my_helix tests (PCR tests) in all states & all available on Github.

Analysis here limited to states with >100 positives PER DAY (and with N gene Cq<27) in December & January.
7 states: CA, FL, GA, IN, NC, PA, TX.

AZ, MA, MI were just under cutoff.
And analysis is focused on variants of concerns
B.1.1.7
B.1.351 (not present)
P.1 (not present)

variants of interest
B.1.427
B.1.429

See outbreak.info/situation-repo… from @K_G_Andersen or covariants.org from @firefoxx66 for info on these variants.
California

Close to 50% of sequences are B.1.427 or B.1.429. Work is still ongoing to establish whether these variants are of concern or not.

cc @EricTopol
Florida

B.1.1.7 numbers still going up. Went from ~9.5% to ~11.8% of positives in 3 days.

B.1.429 present.
Georgia

SGTF numbers going up, and majority of these seem to be B.1.1.7.
Definitely worth monitoring closely (same as TX).

@DrEricDing
Indiana

B.1.1.7 is there. Last 7 days have shown at least 1 or 2 SGTF per day (of 80-100 positives).
Still noisy, but lower case count overall may favor a quicker expansion of B.1.1.7 in coming weeks.
North Carolina

Among the states where Helix tests the most, this is the state with the fewer SGTF and therefore fewer B.1.1.7 cases.
Pennsylvania

SGTF is present. Recently the fraction of SGTF that were B.1.1.7 has been increasing. Our best estimate is that B.1.1.7 represents just above 2% of positive cases in PA.
Texas

SGTF numbers have been increasing rapidly in the last 2 weeks. And the large majority of SGTF we sequenced from Texas are B.1.1.7.
Texas and Georgia are now at levels similar to California for B.1.17.

Few B.1.429 (nothing like California for this variant)
That is a wrap. You can make your own graphs on the @my_helix dashboard: public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

This is a huge team effort. In addition to lab, bioinformatics, research teams ... this is only possible thanks to a great engineering team. @EmreColak_Sr @Maglaar
Additional context for Texas from @dallasnews and quotes from @firefoxx66 . dallasnews.com/news/2021/02/1…

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More from @alexbolze

8 Feb
Thread about our preprint on the study of emergence and increased prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant in the US.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2/
First, my Conflict of Interest: I am an employee of Helix.

We do a lot of COVID testing (PCR tests) and also receive funding for the viral surveillance program.

See the other COIs from authors of this preprint. Image
3/
Methods are very similar to the ones used in the regular @my_helix updates with the dashboard.
public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

The study is based on >500,000 positives PCR tests. We test in all 50 US states, but it is not homogeneous. See map 👇 Image
Read 13 tweets
5 Feb
Latest numbers from @my_helix SARS-CoV-2 surveillance.

Data on PCR test positives & SGTF (S-gene target failure) up to Feb 3.
Stats on sequences and B117 up to Jan 22.

Link: public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

Thread on Florida and California
2/
For each graph, numbers are provided for each day and as 5-day moving average.

n SGTFs and n positives come from PCR tests -> based on large numbers.

n SGTFs seq & n B117 come from sequencing -> smaller numbers. => 5-day avg important for these to reduce noise
3/
Florida first
- latest avg (n SGTF) / (n positives): 8.6%
- latest avg (n B117) / (n SGTF seq): 78%

Extrapolating the seq data, estimate (likely under estimate) is: B117 represents 6.7% of positives

Trend 📈
Read 7 tweets
4 Feb
In @my_helix SARS-CoV-2 dashboard, we show that in Massachusetts, ~5% of positives are SGTF (= have del69/70). It has been consistent since November.

BUT, they are not B117. So what are these SGTF?

Majority are B.1.375.

More details in 🧵

public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
B.1.375 is a SARS-CoV-2 variant with the following defining mutations:

Gene: protein change
ORF1a: T1828A
ORF1b: E1264D
ORF3a: T151I
Spike: del69/70 -> this is why it is a SGTF
M: I48V

Some details about the variant in this paper: virological.org/t/detection-of…
As far as I know, this is not a variant of concern.

In our sequences of SGTF samples, we also see this variant a lot in Florida. Following the fraction B1.1.7/B.1.375 in Florida over time will be informative to assess whether B.1.375 has any impact on transmissibility
Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
Update on @my_helix SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance program.
Data from testing with n positives & SGTF (S-gene target failure)
Stats on sequences (SGTF & non-SGTF)
Stats on B117

Link: public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

Thread with analyses in CA, FL, MA ...
2/
First, the dashboard is still focused on B117. Because B117 is more infectious & had large impact in many UK, Ireland, Denmark...

But, looking for other variants is also super important. covariants.org

=> we are increasing sequencing of random positives. see map Number of non-SGTF positives sequenced as of January 18. Num
3/
Back to SGTF & B117 analyses. Knowing there is a bias in selection, we estimate % of positives that are B117 by looking at 2 metrics:
- (n SGTF) / (n positives)
- (n B117) / n SGTF sequenced)

And all numbers are from positives with a N-gene Cq < 27.
Read 9 tweets
27 Jan
New data on the @my_helix SARS-CoV-2 dashboard, which is still focused on B117 variant.

Link: public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

Thread with specific analysis in California & Florida.
2/ Methods

All numbers are based on positives with Ct<27 for N gene.

Tracking 2 metrics to estimate % of positives that are B117:
- (n SGTF) / (n positives)
- (n B117) / (n SGTF sequenced)

Latest sample collection date:
for SGTF: Jan 22
for sequencing: Jan 15
3/ CA results

Latest 7 day moving average:
- (n SGTF) / (n positives) ~ 0.015
- (n B117) / (n SGTF sequenced) ~ 0.95

estimate: 1.4% of positive cases in CA are B117. Trending up.

@EricTopol SGTF = S Gene Target Failure. This is due to a deletion in t
Read 6 tweets
21 Jan
Update. @my_helix launched a dashboard with our results re virus surveillance
So far, you can check trends in by states for:
- % of SGTF by positives
- Ns & % of B117

Link:
Tableau public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…

Helix web helix.com/pages/helix-co…

🧵 with results for CA, FL, MA...
2/
Methods:
ALL numbers are based on positives with Ct<27.

In real life, we return positive results for Ct≥27, but we only sequence (with @illumina) samples with more virus (Ct<27) to optimize seq success.

Still Ns analyzed are large. A couple thousands positives per day
3/
So far, our effort was focused on B117, which is established to be more contagious.

B117 causes SGTF (S gene target failure) in PCR test. But it is not the only variant to do so.

So 2 metrics are useful to track

- (n SGTF / n positives)
- (n B117 / n SGTF sequenced)
Read 10 tweets

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