In the US, the real estate tax code is written in a way twisting investors’ hands to always be exposed only via equity.

However, this is not the case in other jurisdictions.

We make a case that mezzanine debt is the most versatile exposure throughout the whole cycle.
In a perfect world:

• at the early stage of the real state cycle be accumulating at depressed valuations

• at the mid-cycle continue accumulating, while also lending via mezz debt

• during the late-cycle stage lending via senior & mezz debt, with rare if any equity exposure
Deal selection will always be the most important aspect of the alternative asset capital allocation process.

We have a saying: #greatdealsonly which means we will search far & wide, and look at 100s of opportunities, before deciding to expose to a single one.
Choosing the right mezzanine debt opportunity can result in the following outcomes:

• tax advantages since withholding tax on interest is lower than dividends & capital gains in almost all OECD countries

• downside protection in terms of valuation since mezz can achieve...
...a break-even outcome even if valuation declines by -20% or even -30%

• in an unlikely event of a default, one holds the 2nd lien over a tangible asset resulting in a minimal chance of losing your principal

• mezz debt can achieve equity-like returns of 15%, or even 20% pa

• • •

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More from @TihoBrkan

14 Feb
Fantastic place to turn off the noise for the weekend.
🌊
🏄‍♂️ 🤙🏽

Not only in Burleigh Heads or Uluwatu.

Also in Malta.
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
This was our call a year ago...

Contrarian investing at its best.
Not only has the medical cannabis ETF gone up a lot from its depressed lows,

But the $USD has gone down a lot vs the Canadian Dollar.

That’s what we call a one-two punch!

#greatdealsonly Image
My mentor used to say:

Timing isn’t everything, it’s the ONLY thing.
Read 4 tweets
5 Feb
A fierce case of FOMO is fuelling one of Brisbane’s biggest housing booms in years with open-home inspections looking more like a scene from The Hunger Games as desperate buyers treat dwindling stock like languishing loo paper. domain.com.au/news/brisbane-…
An explosive year of growth has spurred property prices on the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast to new record heights, with a wafer-thin slice of beachfront paradise now fetching millions.

domain.com.au/news/house-pri…
Thread from 2019 outlining:

a) up and coming shortages QLD will face (upward price pressure)

b) relatively attractive pricing vs Sydney & Melbourne (underpinned by continued interstate migration)

Read 5 tweets
31 Jan
Hedge funds and other speculators are holding over $35 billion in net short positions, betting against further declines in the US Dollar.

Often, that has led to a short squeeze and a rise in the exchange rate; and often a $USD rally is negative for risk assets (stocks).
The majority of the short positions are skewed in three currencies, though.

The Euro, Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Kiwi Dollar.
Have we seen a regime change (change in trend) for the USD?

If true this will have a major impact on various asset classes & regional economic growth in the world.

History shows during $USD downtrend lead to European real estate + Emerging Markets & Asian stocks outperformance.
Read 7 tweets
25 Jan
1/ Howard Mark's Oaktree on the attractiveness of real estate debt:

"Oaktree's broad range of credit strategies affords us a unique vantage point from which to compare the relative value, and we believe that private real estate credit presents an attractive proposition."
2/ "BB-rated corporate bonds are trading at around 4.5% yield-to-worst, and B-rated bonds are in the 4-6% range. Publicly traded CMBS are faring slightly better, with single-asset single-borrower B-rated bonds trading in the 6-7% yield-to-worst context."
3/ "Compare those with private real estate loans, which are anticipated to be performing throughout their term and are regularly pricing in the 5-8% range for first mortgages and the 9-12% range for more junior positions in the capital structure."
Read 5 tweets
24 Jan
"Sixty-three percent of affluent children between the ages of 18 and 22 say financial stability in retirement will depend on inheriting money."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Should inheritance tax be increased meaningfully to battle inequality and wealth/capital hoarding?

"Inheritance tax dates back to the Roman Empire, which collected 5 percent of inherited property in order to pay soldiers’ pensions. Today, the practice is widespread."
“Relatively high level [of inheritance] is a sign of the continent’s low social mobility, keeping education, income and social connections from evolving over generations.”

European old money is at least one of the causes for lack of opportunities and below average growth rates.
Read 6 tweets

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