Thread by @asfandyarmir

.@Tmgneff and @Taimoornyt report a dire situation in Kandahar with the Taliban moving "closer to taking the provincial capital than they have in more than a decade." nytimes.com/2021/02/15/wor…

"If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender .."

"During an offensive in [Panjwai in] the fall, the Taliban took swaths of territory and then mostly held their ground despite attempts by the Afghan security forces and U.S. airstrikes to dislodge them."

"Taliban commanders told tribal officials [they] stopped short of taking Panjwai, said Haji Mahmood Noor, the district’s mayor, because they were told...see how the next phase of peace negotiations played out. “When the trees turn green the situation will get worse,” Mr. Noor..."

"As [police chief Tadeen Khan's] officers taxed and abused their residents with little oversight, the Taliban forged alliances with local tribal leadership and paid low-level police officers to abandon their posts before their fall offensive, local and provincial officials said."

"When the Taliban pushed into the districts around Kandahar, the police put up very little fight. Many outposts were already barely staffed, Mr. Noor and other local officials said. Some Afghan government officials disputed that accusation, saying they retreated in fear."

"...deteriorating situation in Kandahar is a broader reflection of security around the country. The Taliban have spent the past months capturing military bases and police outposts and installing highway checkpoints near capital cities in provinces..."

"In December, nearly 200 checkpoints in Kandahar were abandoned by the Afghan army...The collapse of some military bases in the fall afforded the Taliban troves of military equipment and ammunition, including several pieces of heavy artillery."

"Insurgent fighters have smashed smartphones and banned music, imposed a curfew, dug defensive tunnels between people’s homes and used empty rooms in them as fighting positions. Roadside bombs are everywhere, he said. But land disputes and petty crime are well managed..."

"To prepare for a possible multipronged attack should the United States stay beyond the May 1 deadline, the Pentagon has requested additional military options — including an increase of U.S. troops or a commitment of more air support from U.S. Central Command..."