Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD ON UK VACCINATION PROGRAMME:

TLDR: At 3 mill doses/week expect a big slowdown in *first* doses in April/May. But then summer ramp up to vaccinate all adults by early September.

Increasing to *6 mill/wk* for *6 wks* in April/May could vax everyone by mid July. 1/6

This is where we are now (latest weekly data to 7 Feb). Almost all vaccinations are first dose now.

Vaccination numbers levelling out at about 3 million a week.

But in early March we need to start giving 2nd doses... 2/6

*If* we stay at 3 mill/wk doses, by May ALL those 3 mill doses will be spent giving 2nd doses to people vaccinated in Feb.

In June 1st dose ramps up again & all adults offered 1st dose by end July. Using 3 mill/wk for 2nd doses means all offered 2 doses by early Sept

BUT 3/6

IF we ramp up supply & capacity to deliver 6 mill/wk doses by mid April for *6 weeks* then we can *keep* vaccinating new people at 3 mill/wk while honouring 2nd doses 12 wks after 1st.

After 6 weeks all adults offered 1 dose. At 4 mill/wk after, all 2nd doses by mid July. 4/6

I don't know what the vaccine procurement is looking like. I don't know what plan is. Moderna due to kick in Spring?

BUT *if* we could do this we could offer 2 doses of vax to all adults by mid July instead of early Sept under const 3 mill/week.

Is it worth it? 5/6

Two months may not seem that much - and offering to everyone by Sept would still be great - but doing it by July would make opening up *safer* AND make us less vulnerable to growing our own vaccine resistant strain of Covid. 6/6

(calc details follow)

Calcs 1/2
In calcs above, I've:
- assumed 53 million adults over 16 in UK
- assumed 2nd doses take priority over 1st doses if 12 week interval due
- Remaining capacity after satisfying 2nd dose demand is used for 1st doses

and

Calcs 2/2:
- Calc 2nd dose demand by num 1st vax given 12 weeks earlier minus num 2nd vax given 3 weeks later (for doses given to 7 Feb)
- after all 1st doses offered, use max capacity each week for 2nd doses (allow <12 week interval to second dose).

Back of envelope stuff!