Social scientists were no more accurate than lay people in predicting or assessing social consequences of COVID-19; estimates of the magnitude of change were off by more than 20% and <1/2 accurately predicted the direction of changes
#SocSciResearch
psyarxiv.com/g8f9s/
#SocSciResearch
psyarxiv.com/g8f9s/
According to their objective indicators, largest change was an increase in violence. People expected large increases in loneliness & decreases in life satisfaction that didn’t materialize & expected prejudice to increase; it declined. They overestimated increases in polarization
The study focused on aggregate US psychological indicators & mostly surveyed psychologists. But there were no big differences based on subject area or level. Lay people expressed more confidence in predictions. Lay & experts mostly agreed, with both vastly overestimating changes.
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