We need to seriously stop fabricating baseless rumours that Chinese soldiers are in #Myanmar. They are not and they will not be. Outside observers claiming anything else is senseless, irresponsible and dangerous.
I understand that people in Myanmar are afraid and that media restriction and secrecy on side of the Tatmadaw is aiding this kind of fake news. There's a reason why "rumour" has such a prominent place in Myanmar politics after decades of dictatorship. I can't blame them. 2/10
However, these fears are not only baseless but dangerous: The Tatmadaw has enough soldiers to brutally suppress protests. No need for a few Chinese foot soldiers. More importantly the Tatmadaw is the most anti-Chinese institution in the country and would never agree to that 3/10
This does not even yet take into account the perspective from Beijing: Why on earth would China want to send foot soldiers to help suppress peaceful protests in Myanmar? What's in for them other than international condemnation? China is comfortable in Myanmar as it is. 4/10
I am seriously afraid that stoking anti-Chinese sentiment might result in violence against ethnic Chinese people in Myanmar. It would not be the first time to see junta-induced anti-China sentiments turning lethal in Myanmar (1967 anti-Chinese riots in Mandalay). 5/10
All this is contributing to the Tatmadaw's strategy: 1) Creating anti-Chinese sentiments is the same old military divide and rule strategy along ethnic lines; 2) Creates another scapegoat for military wrongdoing; 3) Stokes fear that China intervenes if protests don't stop. 6/10
Side note: seeing discussions on how some soldiers look Chinese because they have a different skin colour / ethnic appearance makes me sad. Myanmar is such an ethnically diverse country. Let's celebrate this diversity and not reduce people to the colour of their skin. 7/10
In all of this I don't blame any Myanmar twitter users. They are genuinely afraid. But I cannot but get angry when outside observers contribute to this dangerous mix by stoking fear of what is completely out of the question with posting groundless fake news. 8/10
.@StuAlanBecker claims to have been the previous Myanmar Times Bureau Chief of Mandalay (!). And he claims to know "Myanmar Army's tactics" even though he admits that he has no evidence after @ZweLwinMyanmar very thoughtfully challenges him about his evidence 👏 9/10
Great to see how Myanmar people check the completely irresponsible use of twitter by outside "experts"! 👍👍👍 10/10
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Great thread by @ZweLwinMyanmar: urging people not to panic over fake news about Chinese soldiers in #Myanmar, to consider evidence carefully & to question how fake news only help the Tatmadaw. In his words: "Keep calm & analyse!"
.@ZweLwinMyanmar makes excellent points about photos being used out of context & the lacking credibility of Burmese police shouting in Chinese. Please read his thread.
I could not agree more, even though we all appreciate how frightening the situation is.
2/8
I also doubt the authenticity of this viral video in which one can hear Burmese police shouting 1, 2, 3 in Chinese. The sound bits seems superimposed on the original sound that continues underneath. This is the age of fake news and anyone with a computer can do this easily. 3/8
This is actually big news and devastating for the KNU. It is also very illustrative of the state of the peace process under ASSK as well as what might come for EAOs and peace in #Myanmar more generally. #MyanmarCoup
Mahn Nyein Maung (MNM) has also been called Burma's Papillon for his "miraculous" escape from the high security prison on Coco Island aka “Burma's Devil's Island” He was then imprisoned again in Insein and released with the KNU ceasefire in 2012 after which he returned to KNU 2/5
I interviewed MNM in 2013 when he insisted that then semi-military administration of U Thein Sein (former Tatmadaw General) was a peace-loving government that the KNU should trust. Needless to say not everyone in the KNU agreed, especially with rampaging ceasefire capitalism 3/5
As there is increasing talk about the need to rethink Western donor engagement with #Myanmar, get up to speed with the following open-access article by @schulmanic & me, in which we urged exactly this two years ago:
The article historicises Myanmar's transition of 2011, which demonstrates that Western donors' understanding of the country's transition primarily through the lens of "democratisation" was not only analytically wrong but also politically problematic. 2/6
Operating on this assumption of democratisation, Western donors shifted funds from grassroots networks to militarised state bureaucracies that co-opted peacebuilding and development projects for the purposes of ethnocratic and authoritarian state-building & counterinsurgency. 3/6
Some good reflections here on why it's not nitpicking to highlight that the coup happened largely within the confines of 2008 constitution. Re the question what the NLD has done to challenge the military’s practical hegemony over #Myanmar politics from within those constraints:
One of the biggest practical challenges the NLD mustered to Tatmadaw's power from within these constraints was removing the General Administration Department (Myanmar's bureaucratic backbone) from military-controlled Ministry of Home Affairs, placing it under civilian controlled.
But that was two years ago, and obviously cannot be the sole explanation for today's escalation. Yet, it comes to show that the NLD has found some clever loopholes (including UEC) over the years, which all together apparently seem increasingly threatening to Tatmadaw interests.