That's a load of crap, if you bother to dig out the list of transgressions which took place since late 2016. Crying victim and blame-push in order to justify asking Americans to pay to keep VFA? Want to have your cake and eat it, I suppose. cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/2/16…
Exhibit 1: “It is not enough that China now gives the impression that it is giving ‘permission’ to our fisherfolk to fish in the waters around the shoal… giving permission is an act of ownership, it should not stop our claim of ownership over the shoal.” philstar.com/headlines/2016…
Exhibit 2: "He told us we should not be overly celebrating, because we might offend China," Lorenzana. gmanetwork.com/news/news/nati…
Exhibit 3: "When asked if this arrangement would apply to areas within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, where the country should have sovereign rights, Duterte said it would not matter whether the site is part of this area or not." cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/9/11…
Exhibit 4: “As far as I’m concerned, I’m the owner, and I’m just giving the fishing rights,” Duterte. globalnation.inquirer.net/178052/duterte…
Exhibit 5: Filipino fishermen have been watching the Chinese giant clam extraction go on for years at Scarborough Shoal... Speed boats of the China Coast Guard that visit trollers drive away Filipino and other fishing vessels trying to enter the shoal. news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/15/19/…
Exhibit 6: "My question to you is, what can we do when they have control as of now, right? They have forces there," PRRD spox Panelo in 2019. rappler.com/nation/panelo-…
Exhibit 7: President Rodrigo R. Duterte on Monday refused to describe the Chinese Coast Guard personnel’s practice of taking catch from Filipino fishermen in the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal as “seizure” saying the better term to describe it was “barter." pna.gov.ph/articles/10386…

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More from @CollinSLKoh

24 Jan
@fravel Thank you Professor Taylor. Under Ch3, clause 20, the CCG is authorized to order foreign organizations or individuals to cease such unlawful activities or to dismantle/remove the structures, floating or fixed, within waters and on islands and reefs under national jurisdiction...
@fravel And the subsequent mention is that if the foreign organizations or individuals fail to heed those orders, CCG is authorized to stop those activities (i.e. construction of those structures) or forcibly dismantle/remove them...
@fravel This clause gives "stability-inducing cover" to CCG, because it first mandates CCG to order the other party to desist from constructing/emplacing those structures, and failing which, escalate the action to stop such activities or forcibly dismantling/removing those structures...
Read 11 tweets
22 Jan
THREAD: The 25th Standing Committee session of PRC's 13th National People's Congress passed the Coast Guard Law, which has been under deliberation and opened to "public consultation" for the past few months since last year. Some key takes below. reuters.com/article/us-chi…
1. There has been much reported in the press focusing on the authorization of CCG to open fire at foreign vessels. The first that came to my mind is that beyond how it could impact regional maritime flashpoints e.g. SCS disputes, it's a common practice worldwide anyway. 1/
2. Authorizing MLE agencies to open fire in the course of their law enforcement and sovereignty assertion duties is nothing new, since coastal states have had domestic laws governing such provisions. In 2018, Vietnam passed its new coast guard law that outlines the same. 2/
Read 32 tweets
14 Jan
THREAD: Since there's no background context provided here, I shall chip in to dispel the notion that the SCS arbitration brought forth by then Aquino Administration against Beijing in 2013 is "destabilizing" as claimed here.
Scarborough Shoal falls within Philippine EEZ. Due to its capacity shortfalls in enforcing fishery protection, Manila's enforcement in the shoal against foreign fishermen operating there had at best been intermittent throughout the decades. 1/
If one bothers to catalogue the instances of maritime activities in Scarborough Shoal, it's possible to uncover instances where PH maritime forces managed to apprehend PRC fishermen in the shoal. Beijing would protest but nothing more than that. 2/
Read 19 tweets
12 Jan
It's certainly more than 50% efficacy as reported last month. Though barely more so, by 0.4%. reuters.com/article/us-hea… ImageImage
Meanwhile, you can count on GT to strike a very upbeat tone that most likely won't help ameliorate public concerns about transparency over Beijing's vaccine data, nor will it help ameliorate negative public acceptance in several countries e.g. Philippines. globaltimes.cn/page/202101/12…
“I’m not rejecting vaccines, I’m rejecting Sinovac’s,” said Yusdeny Lanasakti, an East Java doctor who is worried about the vaccine’s efficacy. reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov 20
THREAD: Regarding such claim, we should of course exercise some caution and seek to ascertain its veracity. One way is PRC official publication of the circumstances of this test and outcomes, or Pentagon confirmation. Either way may not be forthcoming. scmp.com/news/china/mil…
1/: as an engineer by training, I’m aware there are practical limits to systems. It’s not as simple as launching a missile and expecting it to hit. A host of physical factors has to be accounted for. Even more complicated is having a ballistic missile hit a moving target.
2/: let’s assume the PLA has over the years honed its ISR capabilities focusing on the near seas, which is less ambitious compared to a global strike complex, there’s after all the possibility that the PLA manages to minimise the intervening physical factors to an accurate shot.
Read 12 tweets
13 Nov 20
Generally I find RAND research outputs really insightful and useful. But sorry to say that this report is afflicted by certain stereotypes, and some wishful thinking about areas for future cooperation. rand.org/pubs/research_…
THREAD 1/: As of this writing, Singapore’s economic performance is sluggish, and national elections in 2020 marked a
transition to a new generation of leaders. Given these considerations, Singapore is undertaking
an effort to boost its ties with Beijing (p.12)
2/: Since the upheavals in 2016, SG has already undertaken efforts to mend ties with Beijing, and recent moves represent a continuation, not a "boost" as asserted by the authors. It also implied the new-gen leadership is inclined towards policy shift. This is incorrect.
Read 20 tweets

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