The CMI has now published it's latest weekly analysis of COVID excess mortality on an age-standardised basis. It now estimates 104,600 excess deaths, with 42% in the second wave.
A few more observations follow below.
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A few more observations follow below.
1/4
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1361694727041671180
We can see how there has already been around 4% (of a full year's deaths) excess so far in 2021.
This graph, which compares a year with the previous one, will abruptly change direction in late March as 2020 worsened, but for now it helps show the quantum of variance.
2/4
This graph, which compares a year with the previous one, will abruptly change direction in late March as 2020 worsened, but for now it helps show the quantum of variance.
2/4
We can see here that male mortality in all age groups over 45 has been around 50% higher than normal in recent weeks. COVID doesn't just affect the elderly or very sick.
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3/4
With around 4% excess mortality to add to the 13.4% we experienced in 2020 (from late March to the end of the year), we have now had around 17.5% excess mortality, in relation to a full year's expectation, in just over 10 months.
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4/4 END
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