Thread by @neilthomas123

THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing

TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…

Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year

All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress

Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…

Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office

He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022

Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)

Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office

He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years

Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)

Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012

Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)

Nine of 26 State Council cabinet ministries got a new leader in 2020

But less ministers become national leaders under Xi

Only 3 of the 19th Politburo (2017-2022) had been State Council ministers, compared to 5 in the 18th Politburo (2012-2017) (6/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…

Tang Yijun, new Minister of Justice, is one of the more likely Politburo hopefuls

Guo Shengkun, head of the CCP Political and Legal Affairs Commission, will retire in 2022

He'd usually be replaced by the Minister of Public Security, but Zhao Kezhi also retires in 2022 (7/14)

Current PLAC Sec-Gen Chen Yixin is favorite to replace Guo on the Politburo, but Tang also seems a contender

Both worked under Xi when he was Zhejiang Party Secretary (2002-2007)

But Tang is on many leading groups, led a province & is a minister (like last 4 PLAC heads) (8/14)

The two youngest SC promotions—Tang Dengjie and Wang Wentao—both served under Xi during his stint as Shanghai Party Secretary in 2007

Tang Dengjie, a former weapons and auto SOE executive, could replace He Lifeng as Chair of the National Development and Reform Commission (9/14)

Interestingly, many rising stars have not worked with Xi, but have worked closely with Xi's allies on the Politburo

Tang Renjian has worked under Liu He

Hu Heping — Chen Xi

Yin Hejun, Zhang Gong — Cai Qi

Chen Xiaojiang, Hou Kai — Wang Qishan, Yang Xiaodu, Zhao Leji

(10/14)

"All told, six of the nine new cabinet ministers either worked with Xi or one of his Politburo associates. Proximity to Xi now seems to hold more explanatory power for personnel shifts in Chinese elite politics than factional competition."

(11/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…

This finding resonates with a piece I did for @MacroPoloChina last year

I found the proportion of Xi associates on the Party's elite 25-member Politburo increased from 20% in 2012 to 60% in 2017

I haven't seen evidence this trend won't intensify (12/14)

macropolo.org/analysis/the-t…

Part 1 of this series showed rising stars promoted to local leadership positions as the new Party Secretaries and Governors of Chinese provinces

Provincial leadership was already the surest path to national positions, but is even more so under Xi (13/14)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…

We @MacroPoloChina maintain an updated database of demographic & career data for all ~370 members of the CCP Central Committee

You can see career overlaps between different members and search by demographic criteria like gender, ethnicity, sector (14/14)

macropolo.org/digital-projec…