Was good to speak to @MarkUrban01 @BBCNewsnight last night on UK/EU deal. In case you missed it, I think TCA will basically be as good as it gets - for quite some time. Four reasons in this mini-thread 1/
1: Govt wants to diverge. Whether symbolic or substantive is yet to be resolved between pragmatic & ideological Tory €sceptics. But only q is how far/fast. 3 March budget cd provide some clues. Sunak likely to say something about divergence agenda in context of Covid recovery 2/
1b: Good eg is equivalence for financial services, which remains unlikely. Govt doesn't want to be rule-taker from Bxl; thinks sector will be better regulated by HMT/BoE. EU also not keen; believes trust & stable relations are pre-requisites, both of which are lacking with HMG 3/
2: Johnson will remain fundamentally cakeist in his approach to EU. This will make his big asks from Bxl simply undeliverable. Good eg is HMG opportunistic attempt to use COM blunder on Art16 to renegotiate Protocol. But Protocol isn't prob; it's fact UK chose to leave CU, SM 3/
3: Labour has almost no political room for manoeuvre on Europe. Johnson stands ready to accuse Starmer of wanting to undo Brexit (“keep Brexit done”). Not true, but some mud will stick with voters in red wall, as Starmer was architect of Labour's referendum strategy in 2018/19 4/
4: There's imp opening for Johnson with Biden. Not just G7, climate, but also on China & Russia where US wants a more hawkish approach & is annoyed with EU/Ger on Nordstream2 & its investment deal with China. This is much more imp for HMG/“Global Britain“ than fp co-op with EU 5/
So divergence, cakeism, Labour's constraints on Europe & HMG desire to platform Global Britain & align with Biden all limit space to meaningfully build on TCA in short, medium & possibly longer term. This even before we consider EU politics, which push in same direction too ENDS
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